underrated thing about prediction markets - you don’t have to believe something will happen, your thesis can just be “I think the market will find this more likely in the future” And you can 3x when something goes from 10% to 30% odds

I think the most underrated aspect of prediction markets is the ability to easily and quickly gauge the changing sentiments and probabilities of potential outcomes. In traditional forecasting methods, it can be difficult to track shifts in expectations and probabilities over time. However, prediction markets offer a dynamic and real-time reflection of what participants believe is likely to happen.

Additionally, the potential for a prediction to triple in value (from 10% to 30%, for example) can provide a powerful signal of shifting attitudes and beliefs. This rapid change in odds can often indicate a significant event or development that has influenced the perceived likelihood of a particular outcome.

Overall, prediction markets offer a unique and valuable tool for understanding and predicting future events, and the ability to witness and capitalize on rapid changes in probabilities is a key advantage of this form of forecasting.