Books

Incredible book.

My main issue with the scenario:

If all the nuclear missiles were launched via submarine, we wouldn’t know who is attacking us and therefore couldn’t respond. https://x.com/zebulgar/status/1809770212641894434?s=46

My understanding is that a key role of American attack submarines is to coordinate with undersea microphone networks to shadow adversary ballistic missile submarines. There aren’t that many ballistic missile subs in the world. The UK and France have four total (no more than 1-2 patrol at once) and get ruled out as strategic threats. India and Israel’s four subs are regional and get ruled out as strategic threats. That leaves Russia’s four total and China’s six total. 

Only Russia’s are equally stealthy as UK/France/US. So right now the threat is two stealthy Russian ballistic missile subs and three older/noisier Chinese ones (assuming 50% continuous deployment). They are hunted by 53 American fast-attack submarines and undisclosed undersea monitoring capability. Part of the impetus behind AUKUS (the trilateral US/UK/Australia strategic partnership)— as well as American attack subs being based and built in Australia— is China’s  expected transition to Type 096 missile subs with equal stealth.

Chocolate rainmaker. Singer. Thinker. Voice

"The beast is not as scary as they paint it"