Simiao Li

@simiao-li

88 Following

47 Followers

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The opposite of love is not hate; it's irrelevance. This is especially true for brands, communities, & culture. And that's perhaps 80% of what layer 1 blockchains are about. (The tech differences are minuscule for the scale at which they operate today.)

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Some of the most exciting opportunities for our generation to build (in descending order) are tokenized religion, tokenized culture, tokenized brands -- all permissionless, grassroot, CC0. Best part, the three become increasingly one. Who's building?

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Mechanically, commonalities between engineering an up-only asset & a thriving religion: 1) acquiring hodlers/investors/contributors/believers with lowest cost (growth); 2) turning them into diamond hands over time (retention). Fundamentals are whatever you use to facilitate #1& #2 while brining in legitimacy.

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Nouns is the 2nd project where upon knowing about it, I couldn't resist coming back to it for a few consecutive days. Last project that did this to me was Uniswap.

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In a world of digital abundance with AI, blockchains are the only thing that provides provenance. However, provenance does automatically not equal to scarcity (or value). What is value in an AI-built digital world?

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AI-generated abundance of digital stuff is coming. NFTs provide proof of ownership, but not "scarcity". Scarcity is a fundamentally intersubjective concept. There can be endless NFTs, but only some gain significance through garnering social consensus. What exactly begets value in an age of radical digital abundance?

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Hot take: Ridiculous fruit tokens and worthless PFPs are, despite their apparent absurdity, closer in nature to the core atomic unit underpinning the ultra-liquid crypto Capitalism, than serious-looking, cashflow generating real businesses that are, undoubtedly, great equity investments.

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There's still way too much noise about niche/incremental changes to tech, too little attention to the hard thing: building something that enough normal people actually want to use. Investment implication: 99% of B2B crypto middlewares are too early for investment. Successful models for to-C dApps have to come first.

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Crypto is the asset most sensitive to any marginal easing on liquidity (i.e. Fed buybacks), while equities upside is capped by earnings risks. Cashflow-less assets ironically the "better" risk-on asset today. Relatedly: Tokenomics changes that accrue value are ST bullish, but LT bearish price, esp. at these valuations.

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Question: Can crypto-assets as a new asset class flourish and mature without crypto/blockchain technology enabling radical innovative new use cases? When people say they are secularly long crypto, which one of these do they mean?

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Crypto gaming shouldn't be competing on gameplay (chasing AAA). Long dev cycle, hard to iterate on economics system, capital intensive. Leaner games with quicker iterations on the "crypto unique" part of the game will get to PMF faster than AAA games.

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Crypto undoubtedly has the highest hype/valuation/media attention/status vs. product/utility ratio among all industries out there. If prices were to reflect fundamentals, we have a long way down to go. Rest of tech has more or less re-rated to reality. IMO crypto hasn't, still.

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Planning for Token 2049 as a conference newbie is tough. Gotta know important ppl to be invited to private parties. And yet in order to know them you'd need to be at certain parties. Chicken and egg problem. Doesn't this lead to echo-chambering?

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So, what happened to Solana DeFi now that the VCs (incl. FTX venture!) have moved on to Sei?

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In Singapore Sept 27 to Oct. 1 for Token 2049. FC irl event anyone?🥰

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Baffled by bottom calls. US wage-price inflation high flying, Fed hiking, balance sheet rolling back. China in deep shit with covid policy & real estate. Russia can't win a war and Europe can't keep its citizens warm. And crypto will bottom against all these odds?

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Should I invest in something where I observe maximalism/cult energy forming?

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The Merge, PoS, and the Peril of Deflationary HODL Spirit https://i.imgur.com/ID9yKdQ.png

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On the secular shift in asset market macro regime, and what's needed for new generation of investors to survive and thrive. Non-BS, ultra mental flexibility, & combo of macro perspectives + imaginative, creative thinking of the tech frontier. https://i.imgur.com/wGZrSe6.png

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Token incentives are an upgrade to Web 2 aggressive subsidy (Uber). Main advantage of token vs. cash is that the former "tricks" users into over-pricing $ of subsidy on the upside, leading to more apes, faster "traction", and token go up. Alas, reflexivity works both ways.

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