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Ross Shuel

@shuel.eth

117 Following
286 Followers
Ross Shuel pfp
Ross Shuel
@shuel.eth
Albert Camus on the most important choice you'll ever face “To decide whether life is worth living is to answer the fundamental question of philosophy. Everything else…is child’s play; we must first of all answer the question.”
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Ross Shuel pfp
Ross Shuel
@shuel.eth
This has Hail Mary vibes
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Ross Shuel pfp
Ross Shuel
@shuel.eth
America is on the path to getting crypto legislation done right. Great news for founders that want to make crypto innovation happen here, in America.
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Ross Shuel pfp
Ross Shuel
@shuel.eth
In addition to @nic and @trustlessstate duking it out, there are two great grappling matches on the card:
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Ross Shuel pfp
Ross Shuel
@shuel.eth
If anyone is going to watch the fight in-person next week, shoot me a direct cast. I'll be there for the second half https://consensus2024.coindesk.com/events/karate-combat/#karate-tickets
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Ross Shuel pfp
Ross Shuel
@shuel.eth
How severe are adverse selection costs in conditional markets aka futarchy? On a range from very high (specific prediction markets) to low (spot equities markets), where do conditional markets fall?
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Ross Shuel pfp
Ross Shuel
@shuel.eth
Anyone coming to consensus and want to get some mat time in?
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Ross Shuel pfp
Ross Shuel
@shuel.eth
Previously lived in WA for several years and never once won the permit lotto for camping dates.
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Ross Shuel pfp
Ross Shuel
@shuel.eth
Hmm. This makes sense but doesn’t answer the question I’m trying to articulate Another way stating this: should we expect conditional markets to “get it wrong” some % of the time? If so, is there a correlation between the pass v. fail market prices and the probability the “worse” proposal passes
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Ross Shuel pfp
Ross Shuel
@shuel.eth
And if so, what is the implication for conditional markets i.e. futarchy? @nicovrg
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Ross Shuel pfp
Ross Shuel
@shuel.eth
is it more correct to view an efficient prediction market as a mechanism to provide accurate probabilities for outcomes, rather than predicting binary outcomes? e.g. prediction markets correctly assigned Trump a <50% probability of winning the 2016 election.
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Ross Shuel pfp
Ross Shuel
@shuel.eth
Would also like to see this data, if it exists anywhere
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Ross Shuel pfp
Ross Shuel
@shuel.eth
Will share the list on Warpcast if it ends up being worthwhile
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Ross Shuel pfp
Ross Shuel
@shuel.eth
What are some examples of prediction markets getting it wrong? E.g. prediction markets believed Hillary would win the 2016 US presidential election. Trying to build a comprehensive list of examples. Also curious as to strong counter-examples I.e. prediction markets were right & contrary to the “professionals”
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Ross Shuel pfp
Ross Shuel
@shuel.eth
And it’s most likely bots that are liking these posts.
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Ross Shuel pfp
Ross Shuel
@shuel.eth
Who decides the productivity metric?
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Ross Shuel pfp
Ross Shuel
@shuel.eth
Anyone else building something similar?
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Ross Shuel pfp
Ross Shuel
@shuel.eth
What are the coolest things being built at the intersection of information markets and decision making / governance?
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a16zcrypto pfp
a16zcrypto
@a16zcrypto
Today is the last day to submit your application for CSX NYC! 📝: https://apply.a16zcrypto.com
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Ross Shuel pfp
Ross Shuel
@shuel.eth
Ended up training at Dojo in Seal Beach – phenomenal gym, highly recommend it. It's a subsidiary of Checkmat under Leo Vieira https://www.dojosealbeach.com/
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