If Trump wins decisively, I’m never taking polls seriously again

building /bracket | talking /greatbooks | ex-BCG, ex-PHD | poli + phil + econ

these polls seem like the easiest way to manipulate public opinion  🙈

i meant polls with no backing given by news outlets since people use it like “how could you vote for this person, more than half the country thinks they’re (you’re) an idiot”

i agree that sounds problematic in reliability of the bets, why no lock in? the value of the bet placed changes based on time moving forward?

Given that you don’t even need to hold those bets until the end they are an even cheaper way to manipulate public opinion than they first appear

I thought that too, but the more I thought about it, the more I realize peoples money is way more important than their opinion

So the more I think sentiment is represented in a predictive market, the more money is at risk for that particular tactic 

The market has amazing way of correcting things like this

The other question would be Cholan who would be doing the manipulating?

If the prediction market says that one candidate has a 70% chance of winning, then it might actually influence voters for the candidate to think “oh well I don’t need to go vote, he’s gonna win “