semerka💓

@semerka

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374 Followers

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What needs to happen for cryptocurrency's explosive growth? The US printing press In just one year of the pandemic (2020), $6.3 trillion was printed. To understand - about the same amount was released into the market in 10 years - from 2010 to 2020! This amount of money helped the U.S. economy survive the last crisis. There is a good chance that the US government will soon resume printing money to save the country from recession. This will be the trigger for a serious growth of the crypto market. Of course, everything will have to be paid for. That's why I expect we will still see a 2000 or 2008 level crisis after this growth. The game goes on. 2025 will be a defining year.

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You want some advice? Belief in HODL, in my opinion, is better complemented by a rational approach and not stretched over a lifetime. Yes, you won't sell on the highs, but at least you won't sit in drawdowns for several years. In this sense, it is better to work like big players, who have accumulation phases (during the bear and the beginning of the bull) and distribution phases (during the bull and the beginning of the bear). Whales, by the way, also do not sell everything at the very highs and do not buy at the very lows, as it is simply impossible to determine the exact levels of the best prices. You can only get lucky with this

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How not to lose money on futures even if the market goes against us? The most dangerous thing we can do when trading futures is to underestimate the risks. Let's break them down in more detail. "I'll Leverage" Many people trade on borrowed money without realizing that losses can grow as fast as potential profits. "I'll put an automatic stop loss" And here random market movements can easily knock you out of a trade, because it's not always useful. "I don't take volatility into account" Misjudging market fluctuations will cost money, even if the original forecast was correct.

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How to avoid mistakes when trading futures Let's start with the "trend following" strategy. Everything is clear here: you open a long position when the market goes up and a short position when it goes down. But there are a few key points that you need to know so that the strategy brings profits and not losses. Mistake 1: entering "on intuition" Enter a trade without waiting for trend confirmation, hoping that the market is "about to" go in the right direction. How to avoid: use technical indicators to confirm the direction of price movement. Mistake 2: ignoring risks You open too large positions, risking to lose more than you can afford. How to avoid: set stop losses. Develop a strategy, for example, don't risk more than 2-3% of your capital per trade. Mistake 3: neglecting emotions Fear or greed can easily influence your decisions: if the trend is in your direction, you want more profit, but during a correction you hold your position when you should have exited.

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I would like to believe that this is the drop-off we have been waiting for, yet not wanting. You have to be extremely careful about buying coins right now

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The crypto market is very boring right now, very tiring. Nothing much is happening, we have been in a sideways trend for months.... It often happens in this market, we consolidate, we wait for a long time. Then at one moment, often even without any news, a sharp growth of 30-100% upwards, and sometimes even more, if we are talking about alts. Whales and funds have done a complete cleanup of the market before the main start. The only thing left to do is to wait for the launch. Everything is ready, they are waiting for the right moment to launch the euphoria.

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Different technical analysis tools work well in different phases of the market. In the active, impulsive phase, the Fibonacci retracement and dynamic support and resistance lines work well. In the capitulation phase and sideways movements historical support and resistance levels work best, dynamic lines work worse. These comparisons can be made further, and the main message is the volatility of the market, which a trader should always keep in mind. There are no universal and all-weather tools, there is a large arsenal, which you need to be able to juggle, choosing the best for today. It's called experience.

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LDO I am waiting for another decline in the asset. The coin showed a slight growth, but it failed to break through the moving MA200 and most likely it will lead to another drawdown. There are few chances to consolidate above MA50 + volumes to buy have started to decrease. I am waiting for another wave of decline with pushing to the support at $1.3980. Targets: $1.6420 - $1.5110 - $1.3980. Stop: $1.9090

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Eth is in the buying zone The only top that did not rebound looks interesting, because it came back to the accumulation zone, where it was before the previous powerful impulse. It is possible to buy with insurances.

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Now there is maximum divergence in the transactions of whales and hamsters. Whales are buying coins at maximum rate while hamsters are scared and selling. Whales ignore the noise and chaos. Hamsters everywhere write that crypto is dead, there will be no alt season, and the peak of this cycle has already passed. At the same time, the Fear and Greed Index has again rolled back to the level: Fear. The most interesting thing is that with such panic sentiment, bitcoin is still holding around $100,000. And what will happen to it with the euphoria and faith of hamsters in crypto? The exchange rate will be much higher than it is now!

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UNI, SUI, ENА All are somewhere on supports and have potential of growth from current ones. But the market is very weak and I don't want to buy anything. It's up to you, I decided to buy some of the current ones. It's a little unsettling.

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Sad statistics about what the alt season looks like in 2025. Most tokens are -30% at best, but more often than not, things are much worse. Interestingly, I warned about this scenario three weeks ago. Nothing good can be said since Trump's inauguration. There has always been good growth on expectations. But historically, the inauguration of a U.S. President has been a time of cooling markets. Unfortunately, the most predictable scenario is being realized. The only good thing is that the cooling was always temporary, and later on we had good growth. Again, we just have to wait. That's something we're masters at.

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The basic principles of Black Swan. Don't try to predict Black Swans. Create a system that can withstand their appearance. - Nassim Taleb Key principles from the book Black Swan: The greatest risk is to think there is no risk The biggest source of mistakes is blind faith in past experience. If you don't have a strategy to survive chaos, you don't have a strategy at all. The desire for control creates the illusion of security. But stability is not the absence of shocks, but the ability to withstand them.

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BTC Undercutting. We are smoothly approaching the local dynamic resistance. We may well get ready for a breakout in a couple of days. Sanity in sorrow, fear index below the waterline, everything as it should be.

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Victories go astray. What is the danger of first wins? They cloud the eye, creating the illusion that success in the marketplace is easy and predictable. What's the problem? After the first successful trades, there is a feeling that you have already mastered the market. This leads to overconfidence, ignoring risks and turning trading into a game of chance. What is the reality? Gambling and the pursuit of fast money inevitably leads to the loss of your deposit. Without a clear strategy, trading turns into a casino, where luck sooner or later turns against you. There will be trades that bring easy success There will be deals that require difficult decisions. There will be trades that show your weakness. There will be deals where the market will put you on the spot Solution Recognize that early wins are a fluke. Don't let your emotions drive your decisions. Success comes to those who work on discipline rather than chasing easy money.

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BTC The buyer in the asset shows weakness. We do not have enough strength to break above $100,000, so we see another decline into the sidewall of $98,000 - $92,000 and will probably reach its lower boundary in the near future. The support at $92.000$ is quite strong and we should not go below it. Globally I am bullish, but for now we are expected to go down locally. On alts, the situation has not changed, they are still suffering, as BTC dominance has not practically decreased and is at values above 60%.

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JASMY Looks Potentially To Short Targets: $0.021474 - $0.019812 - $0.018277 Stop: 0.025213$

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In January 2021, a couple of months before the crazy ups and downs, there were a lot of similar comments from cryptans in the US: "there will be no alt season", "I'm tired of waiting, I'll sell my alts and keep only bitcoin", "we're peaking, nothing will happen again, coins won't grow now", "everything has changed, there will never be growth like before". It's been 4 years, now everyone is saying the same thing, people's psychology doesn't change for years.

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dangerous friends. Look at the horizontal volume map, it clearly says that you can't break the sidewall down. Under it there is a void up to $70000. Speaking in general, even such a deep correction will not cancel the concept of a growth cycle. But the alts are now lying so low, some of them literally at the last support before collapsing into the abyss, that this scenario is simply not believable.

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