News trading:
1. News generally has diminishing market impact over time, especially if it's the same piece of info (ETF flows, GBTC to Coinbase, German gov, Gox, SEC crusade, etc. - eventually gets stale and priced in).
2. Telegraphed news gets priced in more efficiently than unexpected events e.g. "X is gonna happen on Y date in the future" is more likely to be priced in than "BREAKING: Y just happened."
3. The market's reaction to news is often more telling than the news itself.
Rough blueprint:
Bad news absorbed in a bullish market = Trend continuation
Bad news absorbed in a bearish market = Trend reversal
Good news absorbed in a bullish market = Trend reversal
Good news absorbed in a bearish market = Trend continuation
These work especially well if there's a clear preceding pattern e.g. Bad news = down, Bad news = down, Bad news = down, and then Bad news = up.
As always, plenty of context and nuance around this stuff, but a decent way to start thinking about it IMO. 0 reply
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