Revisiting this post. I now believe this was an overestimate, now that we are demand-limited with clear data for over a year instead of supply-limited like we had been for the first ~15, I have a better understanding of strict global consensus, and fintech continues to progress rapidly, particularly in Asia and Africa.

I still believe demand will grow over time, but the endgame "cliff" for "valuable transactions that need full Ethereum security" will be much lower than I had thought in 2022.

It is important to consider the evidence instead of blind hopium and entitlement as increasing blob supply callously has clear tradeoffs socially, technically and economically that can compromise Ethereum's core values for zero gain.

Needless to say, as usual, I was accused of being too pessimistic in 2022 when in reality even I was being too optimistic. Given prior history, it's likely I'm still too optimistic!

Revisiting this post. I now believe this was an overestimate, now that we are demand-limited with clear data for over a year instead of supply-limited like we had been for the first ~15, I have a better understanding of strict global consensus, and fintech continues to progress rapidly, particularly in Asia and Africa.

I still believe demand will grow over time, but the endgame "cliff" for "valuable transactions that need full Ethereum security" will be much lower than I had thought in 2022.

It is important to consider the evidence instead of blind hopium and entitlement as increasing blob supply callously has clear tradeoffs socially, technically and economically that can compromise Ethereum's core values for zero gain.

Needless to say, as usual, I was accused of being too pessimistic in 2022 when in reality even I was being too optimistic. Given prior history, it's likely I'm still too optimistic!

https://polynya.mirror.xyz/gm6bUvvDF-sQAt7HuU6kRKCLIT9tAuaSCxHeNFdDVHk

The Internet was also very much demand-limited in 2001. Infrastructure had been way overbuilt