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Nick T
@nt
polymarket is now one of the first websites I check each morning. It's kind of like a KPI dashboard for the current beliefs of the zeitgeist, but with better incentives than any centrally authored news source or even social media algorithm. it incentivises users to correct its biases - vs. getting paid to create them.
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alixkun🟣🎩🍡
@alixkun
Don't you think there's a huge bias of opinion, since it only polls a specific category of the population? (gamblers)
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Nick T
@nt
those who think that, can make a very large amount of money by betting against (and thus removing) that bias
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alixkun🟣🎩🍡
@alixkun
I don't think you're getting my point here: You're assuming 100% of the population are actionable gamblers. I'm saying there's a vast proportion of the population who are not gamblers, and even if they have some beliefs, they don't want to put their money on it.
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Nick T
@nt
I did not assume that ^ Let's say you are right, and: most of polymarket user are gamblers. most of the population are not gamblers. polymarket users aren't representative of the population outcomes predicted by polymarket align with the population of gamblers. there is a systematic bias in polymarket predictions. such a bias can be measured with enough resources (e.g. polling) Then what follows is: I assume you believe such a bias is so large that my checking of polymarket as a news source is corrupted by it - e.g. by several %, even 10s of % for some listed wager. > such a bias can be measured with enough resources (e.g. polling) $ opportunity = % discrepancy * size of the betting pool ($XXm+) a hedge fund will sweep in and do the research take a contrarian bet it doesn't matter if they represent <1% of the population since you can use $ as leverage on the outcome by taking that bet, they bring the pool back in balance (since it works on a bonding curve)
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