Been thinking about “pessimists sound smart optimists make money”

Basically the same meme as bell curve.

I think “make money” can also be replaced with “achieve desired outcome” whether financial or otherwise.

And sound smart has to do with desiring status.

i think sounding smart is critical reading with public outputs. 

the issue is that critical reading from any one perspective is maladaptive in this speculative environment where max EV can be extracted from set of bets that do not synthesize to a single coherent thesis.

if your measure of accuracy is whether the agent made money, then expressing a value judgment opinion on socials is negative EV — it only exposes that you didn't invest in something — and provides no actual reputational upside except "i told you so" if ever said tendency experiences a decline in value or perceived reputation. 

thus the sounding smart overthinkoor poster primarily accumulates value through habitual attention of acolytes to a subjective perspective (partisans of a worldview) and never through direct investment. 

social media encourages us to compare apples to oranges. no one coherent  subjective worldview could be used to extrapolate takes across full spectrum of opportunity for max ev. each actor has unique goals.