Johnson

@moonfun

214 Following

77 Followers

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" #BTCIncreases Exchange Deposits After Trump's Election" Since the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, we have observed an increase in the amount of bitcoin deposited on exchanges by whale addresses that have been actively trading. However, adjusted SOPR indicators suggest they have yet to make a big profit. Bulk Bitcoin exchange deposits suggest a possible short-term selling pressure, but given that these assets were not sold immediately, they were likely deposited for collateral purposes for hedging, OTC or leveraged trading. As a result, it is likely that whales are adopting a wait-and-see strategy rather than engaging in direct selling activities. In conclusion, there is no immediate selling pressure, but an increase in exchange deposits could increase the risk of price adjustments following future selling. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously monitor exchange deposits in the future.

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" '24 Year of Growth through Institutional Investor Exchange' "The year 24 marked a significant turning point in the crypto industry. The exchange reported a sharp increase in average Bitcoin and USDT deposits, suggesting an increase in institutional investor engagement. The average Bitcoin deposit holdings on all exchanges increased from 0.36 BTC to 1.65 BTC in 2023, while USDT holdings surged from $19,600 to $230,000. This large holdings reflect the growing interest of institutional investors, setting institutional activities apart from smaller investors. The Binance exchange leads this institutional investor growth, with the largest increase in average Bitcoin holdings on major exchanges. This is in line with the 40% expansion in institutional investor business on the platform mentioned by the Binance CEO. Binance's average daily Bitcoin deposits increased by 2.77 BTC, far ahead of Kraken (0.56 BTC) and Coinbase (0.41 BTC). For USDT, Binance

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🔗 " #ETH trading volume surges, likely to hit a new high" In the November period after the U.S. presidential election, Ethereum has gained over 140%; however, it has yet to top its March 2024 peak. The positive news is that the inflow of institutional capital into Ethereum ETFs has increased significantly. The volume of Ethereum ETFs has increased by about +300% compared to September-October. In addition, the November moves on the chart formed an upward wedge pattern. With the pattern almost complete, there could be significant price fluctuations in the near future. If Ethereum is backed by institutional capital inflows into ETFs, you can expect a rise above the peak like Bitcoin.

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Dominance's departure from the support line, the "alt season" signal - Coin Telegraph Bitcoin (BTC) Dominance fell, raising the possibility of a rise in the altcoin market. Experts are paying attention to the upward trend until early 2025, predicting the strength of altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP). According to CoinTelegraph, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) fell to 56.1%, breaking the two-year-old support line. Based on this, cryptocurrency analyst Mikybul Crypto posted an analysis on X (formerly Twitter) on Nov. 30 that the market has entered the "alt season." Alt season refers to a collective rise in cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin

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" #BTCFutures market selling increases, selling pressure increases" The current #Bitcoin market price buy/sell ratio (30-day average) metric shows selling pressure prevailing. The metric shows a similar value to July 2024 and suggests an unfavorable situation for the buyer. The move reflects an increase in seller activity, which may lead to increased market uncertainty and mass liquidation. Last week, a long position of about $430 million was liquidated, an aggressive reaction from sellers, increasing short-term selling pressure. It also carries volatility due to stop-loss tightening and traders' overleverage in the futures market. November's sharp increase in market buying was the fourth-highest level this year. On the other hand, when a large long position is liquidated, it also provides an opportunity for new funds to flow in. That is, a large liquidation creates a redistribution of capital, which tends to create temporary adjustments after the rise.

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"ERC-20 Stablecoin Hits All-Time High" All ERC-20 stablecoin market cap hit new all-time highs, which could be seen as a positive factor for the crypto market. 1. Investor confidence: Increased supply of stablecoins suggests investors remain confident the market will rise. 2. Increased liquidity: Higher liquidity could potentially lead to higher buying pressures. 3. Increased Market Activity and User Engagement: On-chain activity has increased, reflecting the growth of the crypto ecosystem and confidence in the current cycle.

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Virtual assets skyrocket in a short period of time...Close monitoring of unfair trade" Kim Byung-hwan, chairman of the Financial Services Commission, said on the 24th, "Since virtual asset prices are soaring in a short period of time and the market itself is volatile, the government needs to closely monitor whether there is an unfair trade period." Chairman Kim Byung-hwan appeared on KBS's Sunday Diagnostics on the same day and said, "In terms of the two markets, money should come to the stock market."

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Bitcoin, which bought two pizzas for nearly $1 billion, Laszlo Hanyecz, is in front of two Papa John's pizzas that he bought for 10,000 BTC. CoinTelegraph reported on the 23rd (local time) that the purchase of two pizzas for 10,000 Bitcoin (BTC) in 2010 is now being talked about as a "mistake" worth about 1 trillion won (about 97.8 billion won). Papa John's Pizza, purchased by Laszlo Hanyecz at the time, was recorded as the first commercial transaction in Bitcoin's history. Every year, May 22 is celebrated as "Bitcoin Pizza Day." Whenever Bitcoin prices soar, the incident is often mentioned in the cryptocurrency community and remains a didactic example of "Holding" Bitcoin.

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" #How to leverage the BTC DCA strategy" In the highly volatile coin market, the use of Dollar-Cost Averaging strategies can yield huge returns. In particular, using a variety of methods, including technical analysis and on-chain indicators, can respond more effectively. Using multiple moving averages is one of the ways to identify the best buying opportunities in this regard. If you look at a DCA strategy indicator, there is a moving average from the 7th to the 2nd, which is historically a good buying opportunity when the price falls below that moving average. Especially if you personally set a 116 moving average, it helps you identify the medium-term trend of Bitcoin, which is almost similar to the realized price of short-term holders. By adopting the DCA strategy, investors can be confident in a highly volatile crypto environment and unlock the potential to earn big returns as they effectively manage their risks.

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" #BTC Reduced Distribution Speed, Suggests Long-Term Investor Holding Trends" The Velocity indicator is the total amount of coins moved over a year divided by the total supply, which is an indicator of how fast the coins are circulating in the market. Average coin dormancy is a measure of when and how much Bitcoin, which hasn't moved for a long time, is an indicator of long-term investors' coin movement. (Concepts different from Velocity) In 2024, Velocity has remained close to the bottom for nearly a year. Even when the price rose from $35k to $73k, the market's Bitcoin flow did not increase much. Around March 2024, when the ATH was broken, Dormancy rose significantly, meaning Bitcoin, which had been asleep for years, had moved. The fact that Velocity has not increased despite the surge in Dormancy suggests that investors are looking to hold Bitcoin for a long time (HODL) overall. However, as prices have risen significantly, Dormancy has risen as some long-term holders have sold Bitcoin.

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" #BTC long, short futures position price changes" Price fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market are heavily influenced by investor sentiment and market confidence. The ratio of short selling to open interest is an important indicator for understanding market sentiment and predicting future price fluctuations. long/short ratio concept The long/short ratio represents the distribution of long and short positions held by investors. A high long ratio usually means investors expect higher prices, while a high short ratio indicates expectations for lower prices. Chart Analysis The chart below shows the price of Bitcoin (white line) and the long/short ratio (green and red line). The red and green squares marked a price reversal due to excessive long or short positional tilt. Extreme investor sentiment often results in prices moving in the opposite direction. Red Box: Optimism was high for higher prices and indicates an excessive long position.

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" #BTC Price Volatility Less" Since the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, long-term holders have been sent to new wallet addresses. This may be due to Grayscale's high commissions switching to other ETF products. However, it is important to note that as they hold for more than 155 days, they are turning into long-term investors. The chart shows that short-term investor volumes have declined, while long-term investors have increased. Currently, Bitcoin appears to be easing volatility under the influence of spot ETFs and traditional finance, gradually turning into mature assets. Going forward, price volatility will decrease and stability will increase

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Bitcoin Has Not Reached Its Peak Yet

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" #BTC Beneficiary Coin Ratio Remains High" Maintaining a high Bitcoin beneficiary coin ratio is one of the key criteria for determining whether or not a bull market is in progress. Looking back at the past cycle, the Bitcoin beneficiary coin ratio has mostly remained above 80%. Of course, there have been times when it has fallen below 80% (red circle), but this bull market period is a low buy

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🔸 Why Bitcoin Is Rising? Three Points to Know 🔸 After the U.S. Fed's rate cut and the announcement of Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the overall investment market recovered as inflation concerns eased. Bitcoin continued to strengthen, posting gains of more than 4.5%, while the Nasdaq rose 1%. Notable news this week is (1) easing of health regulations on large banks (Basel III) and (2) the Chinese government is considering injecting 1 trillion yuan worth of capital into state-owned banks. This will likely lead to increased liquidity in the market. Meanwhile, in Japan, Shigeru Ishiba, known as "Van Abe," has risen to the prime minister's post, raising concerns about the possibility of a rate hike. This week

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" #BTC Price Volatility Less" Since the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, long-term holders have been sent to new wallet addresses. This may be due to Grayscale's high commissions switching to other ETF products. However, it is important to note that as they hold for more than 155 days, they are turning into long-term investors. The chart shows that short-term investor volumes have declined, while long-term investors have increased. Currently, Bitcoin seems to be easing its volatility under the influence of spot ETFs and traditional finance, gradually turning into mature assets. Going forward, price volatility is expected to decrease and stability will increase.

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" #BTCStill Bullish Markets, Opportunities to Buy When Adjusting Outstanding Arrangements" Looking at the first chart, the buildup of large Bitcoin holders (1,000 to 10,000 BTC holding wallets) is increasing, which is similar to the rise in the first quarter of 2024. If you look at the second chart, Bitcoin's earnings/loss indicator, it's a strong upward signal that the two indicators aren't intersecting and are moving away again. If you look at the third chart, the Bitcoin Return Ratio Indicator, about 85% of the Bitcoin are in profit. If it rises above that figure, there is a high probability of an upward rally. If you look at the fourth chart, the open interest chart, it's a good opportunity to buy when the higher open interest is readjusted and falls below the orange line.

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The news that has been an issue since yesterday is China. China's central bank has announced a wide range of measures to boost the country's weakened economy and sluggish stock markets. The market hasn't reacted to this news before, but this time it has reacted because it was a major stimulus package. The main measures are to cut the benchmark interest rate, cut the reserve ratio, and help the central bank buy back Chinese shares and strengthen its share buyback support. The plan is to boost China's economy by easily releasing a lot of money. The market's response was good, but there are many worrisome opinions. Many say it is not enough to fundamentally revive the Chinese economy amid the current real estate crisis and trade tensions caused by the presidential election. We have to wait and see how long these Chinese issues can continue.

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" #Reversal of trends seen through BTC MVRV" The four-year (orange line) or one-year (black line) average MVRV has been an important resistance or support in Bitcoin market trends. (Overall market trends tend to follow a similar pattern.) As a result, we found that risk management was necessary in March due to the possibility of a short-term high based on on on-chain data, and then in July-September, the short-term adjustment is likely to be completed as the MVRV value (blue line) falls to the main support level, the four-year MVRV value. The current MVRV trend is looking a bit off the past pattern. After a brief overheating during the recovery phase, the price adjustment was milder than expected, and the longer adjustment period resulted in MVRV falling below both the 1-year and 4-year averages. Although the market is expected to recover recently, it is still below the one-year average, indicating that the market is still undervalued compared to the past year.

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" #BTCPuellMultiple Causes Rising Inversion Signal" The Puell Multiple is down to the 0.5 Green Zone, a strong upward reversal sign. Bitcoin Puell Multiple is the value of mined coins per day divided by the average daily mining volume over the past year, indicating how profitable miners are over the past year. This indicates a correlation with the price of Bitcoin based on the miner's earnings. Red Zone (4 and above): Miners are making significant profits, which may result in price adjustments based on revenue realization. Green Zone (0.5 or below): Indicate that miners are operating their diggers at a loss or very low profit, which means they have to turn off their machines or reduce their operations. This is often seen as an upside-inversion signal.

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