Johnson

@moonfun

167 Following

67 Followers

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" #How to leverage the BTC DCA strategy" In the highly volatile coin market, the use of Dollar-Cost Averaging strategies can yield huge returns. In particular, using a variety of methods, including technical analysis and on-chain indicators, can respond more effectively. Using multiple moving averages is one of the ways to identify the best buying opportunities in this regard. If you look at a DCA strategy indicator, there is a moving average from the 7th to the 2nd, which is historically a good buying opportunity when the price falls below that moving average. Especially if you personally set a 116 moving average, it helps you identify the medium-term trend of Bitcoin, which is almost similar to the realized price of short-term holders. By adopting the DCA strategy, investors can be confident in a highly volatile crypto environment and unlock the potential to earn big returns as they effectively manage their risks.

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" #BTC Reduced Distribution Speed, Suggests Long-Term Investor Holding Trends" The Velocity indicator is the total amount of coins moved over a year divided by the total supply, which is an indicator of how fast the coins are circulating in the market. Average coin dormancy is a measure of when and how much Bitcoin, which hasn't moved for a long time, is an indicator of long-term investors' coin movement. (Concepts different from Velocity) In 2024, Velocity has remained close to the bottom for nearly a year. Even when the price rose from $35k to $73k, the market's Bitcoin flow did not increase much. Around March 2024, when the ATH was broken, Dormancy rose significantly, meaning Bitcoin, which had been asleep for years, had moved. The fact that Velocity has not increased despite the surge in Dormancy suggests that investors are looking to hold Bitcoin for a long time (HODL) overall. However, as prices have risen significantly, Dormancy has risen as some long-term holders have sold Bitcoin.

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" #BTC long, short futures position price changes" Price fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market are heavily influenced by investor sentiment and market confidence. The ratio of short selling to open interest is an important indicator for understanding market sentiment and predicting future price fluctuations. long/short ratio concept The long/short ratio represents the distribution of long and short positions held by investors. A high long ratio usually means investors expect higher prices, while a high short ratio indicates expectations for lower prices. Chart Analysis The chart below shows the price of Bitcoin (white line) and the long/short ratio (green and red line). The red and green squares marked a price reversal due to excessive long or short positional tilt. Extreme investor sentiment often results in prices moving in the opposite direction. Red Box: Optimism was high for higher prices and indicates an excessive long position.

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" #BTC Price Volatility Less" Since the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, long-term holders have been sent to new wallet addresses. This may be due to Grayscale's high commissions switching to other ETF products. However, it is important to note that as they hold for more than 155 days, they are turning into long-term investors. The chart shows that short-term investor volumes have declined, while long-term investors have increased. Currently, Bitcoin appears to be easing volatility under the influence of spot ETFs and traditional finance, gradually turning into mature assets. Going forward, price volatility will decrease and stability will increase

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Bitcoin Has Not Reached Its Peak Yet

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" #BTC Beneficiary Coin Ratio Remains High" Maintaining a high Bitcoin beneficiary coin ratio is one of the key criteria for determining whether or not a bull market is in progress. Looking back at the past cycle, the Bitcoin beneficiary coin ratio has mostly remained above 80%. Of course, there have been times when it has fallen below 80% (red circle), but this bull market period is a low buy

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🔸 Why Bitcoin Is Rising? Three Points to Know 🔸 After the U.S. Fed's rate cut and the announcement of Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the overall investment market recovered as inflation concerns eased. Bitcoin continued to strengthen, posting gains of more than 4.5%, while the Nasdaq rose 1%. Notable news this week is (1) easing of health regulations on large banks (Basel III) and (2) the Chinese government is considering injecting 1 trillion yuan worth of capital into state-owned banks. This will likely lead to increased liquidity in the market. Meanwhile, in Japan, Shigeru Ishiba, known as "Van Abe," has risen to the prime minister's post, raising concerns about the possibility of a rate hike. This week

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" #BTC Price Volatility Less" Since the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, long-term holders have been sent to new wallet addresses. This may be due to Grayscale's high commissions switching to other ETF products. However, it is important to note that as they hold for more than 155 days, they are turning into long-term investors. The chart shows that short-term investor volumes have declined, while long-term investors have increased. Currently, Bitcoin seems to be easing its volatility under the influence of spot ETFs and traditional finance, gradually turning into mature assets. Going forward, price volatility is expected to decrease and stability will increase.

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" #BTCStill Bullish Markets, Opportunities to Buy When Adjusting Outstanding Arrangements" Looking at the first chart, the buildup of large Bitcoin holders (1,000 to 10,000 BTC holding wallets) is increasing, which is similar to the rise in the first quarter of 2024. If you look at the second chart, Bitcoin's earnings/loss indicator, it's a strong upward signal that the two indicators aren't intersecting and are moving away again. If you look at the third chart, the Bitcoin Return Ratio Indicator, about 85% of the Bitcoin are in profit. If it rises above that figure, there is a high probability of an upward rally. If you look at the fourth chart, the open interest chart, it's a good opportunity to buy when the higher open interest is readjusted and falls below the orange line.

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The news that has been an issue since yesterday is China. China's central bank has announced a wide range of measures to boost the country's weakened economy and sluggish stock markets. The market hasn't reacted to this news before, but this time it has reacted because it was a major stimulus package. The main measures are to cut the benchmark interest rate, cut the reserve ratio, and help the central bank buy back Chinese shares and strengthen its share buyback support. The plan is to boost China's economy by easily releasing a lot of money. The market's response was good, but there are many worrisome opinions. Many say it is not enough to fundamentally revive the Chinese economy amid the current real estate crisis and trade tensions caused by the presidential election. We have to wait and see how long these Chinese issues can continue.

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" #Reversal of trends seen through BTC MVRV" The four-year (orange line) or one-year (black line) average MVRV has been an important resistance or support in Bitcoin market trends. (Overall market trends tend to follow a similar pattern.) As a result, we found that risk management was necessary in March due to the possibility of a short-term high based on on on-chain data, and then in July-September, the short-term adjustment is likely to be completed as the MVRV value (blue line) falls to the main support level, the four-year MVRV value. The current MVRV trend is looking a bit off the past pattern. After a brief overheating during the recovery phase, the price adjustment was milder than expected, and the longer adjustment period resulted in MVRV falling below both the 1-year and 4-year averages. Although the market is expected to recover recently, it is still below the one-year average, indicating that the market is still undervalued compared to the past year.

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" #BTCPuellMultiple Causes Rising Inversion Signal" The Puell Multiple is down to the 0.5 Green Zone, a strong upward reversal sign. Bitcoin Puell Multiple is the value of mined coins per day divided by the average daily mining volume over the past year, indicating how profitable miners are over the past year. This indicates a correlation with the price of Bitcoin based on the miner's earnings. Red Zone (4 and above): Miners are making significant profits, which may result in price adjustments based on revenue realization. Green Zone (0.5 or below): Indicate that miners are operating their diggers at a loss or very low profit, which means they have to turn off their machines or reduce their operations. This is often seen as an upside-inversion signal.

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"Cryptocurrency News Reads in One Line on September 23rd" ■ U.S. Coffee Company buys with El Salvador Coffee BTC ■ Fire Dancer launches on Solana Mainnet ■ Analysis "3AC, Alameda, and WLD are expected to take 3 years to sell all of them." ■ US SEC Approves Spot ETF Options for BlackRock BTC ■ Last year's Tether profit was $6.2 billion... more than BlackRock ■ VanEck "BTC Outperforms Most Assets Last Year" ■ Foreign Ministry "New York Mellon Bank Spreads Contents That Has Exempted SEC SAB121 Regulations" ■ VanEck "If you only think of the BTC, Harris' election is more advantageous... Trump benefits the crypto industry as a whole" ■ Anthony Scaramucci "Working with Harris to Draft Crypto Policy" ■ U.S. Fed Director Willer Says "In case of market deterioration, additional 50 basis point cut in interest rates may be considered" ■ Visa executive "increases demand for non-dollar currency-based stablecoins in the future" ■ MicroStrategy Purchases Additional BTC Worth $4.5 Billion

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"Rapping #BTCWBTC Hits Record Volume" The launch of cbBTC, one of the lapped bitcoin available on networks other than the Bitcoin network issued by the Coinbase exchange, has raised discussions in the cryptocurrency community about which of the lapped bitcoin products are being used most by users. While cbBTCs are much discussed, including proof of holdings, audits, and blacklist addresses, WBTC is still the most popular of wrapping bitcoin and weekly transactions (transactions) have recently hit all-time highs and exceeded levels of activity not seen in past bull markets.

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" #BTC Long-Term Investor Holds Bitcoin Increase" This chart is a superimposition of the amount of bitcoin held by long-term holders (blue bar graph) and the price of bitcoin (black line). After Dec. 25, 2023, when the price of bitcoin is $43k, we may see a decrease in the quantity of long-term holders bitcoin, which could be seen as a new influx of short-term holders (new investors) into the market and transferring around 1 million BTC from long-term holders. The new investors that flowed in at the time were converted into long-term holders after more than six months, and as of May 28, 24, it increased by 1 million BTC. At current prices, it's worth around $63 billion.

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"#BTC Coinbase Premium, Binance Buying" Coinbase Premium recorded a large negative value. This metric translates the price difference in Bitcoin between Coinbase and Binance exchanges. In other words, the fact that the Coinbase premium is negative in the current upward trend and the price of Bitcoin is not falling can be seen as a big buying trend on the Binance Exchange. In order for Bitcoin's price to rise significantly, it is not just limited to the U.S., but it must be bought by FOMO around the world. This move is quite positive.

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"Cryptocurrency News Reads in One Line on September 20th" ■ BlackRock "Customers buy BTC as a way to prepare for U.S. debt crisis" ■ Silvergate Capital files Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection ■ Deutsche Bank "Most Europeans and Americans reluctant to use CBDC" ■ MicroStrategy Expands $700 Million → $875 Billion in Convertible Bond Issuance ■ Bernstein "significant potential for AI-focused cryptocurrency miners" ■ Fuzzy Penguin CEO "U.S. SEC Attacks NFT Industry, Ridiculous" ■ Bitcoin, Dollar-Based Stablecoin Set To Launch Next Year ■ Vitalik "Crypto Is Already Out of Early Stage" ■ Australian Central Bank "Policies to Concentrate Capacity on CBDCs for Wholesale..."For retail use, it's a small advantage" ■ Google Cloud Launches Its Own Blockchain RPC Following Web3 Portal ■ Jamie Dimon "JP Morgan Is The Largest Blockchain User"

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" #BTCOG whale investor wait-and-see after rate cut Futures buying has been on the rise, given the rising funding ratios and open interest on Binance exchanges after U.S. interest rate cuts. On the other hand, funding ratios and open interest on Bitmax exchanges traded by OG investors have not moved much. The phenomenon suggests that retail investors are belatedly building long positions in anticipation of a rate cut, while OG whales are waiting to see the impact of a rate cut.

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"Cryptocurrency News Reads in One Line on September 19th" ■ U.S. Lawmakers Ask SEC Chair to Explain Clear Application of AirDrop Securities Act ■ Trump "protects crypto start-ups in case of re-election... to bring change to SEC" ■ U.S. Rep. 2 "Cryptocurrency Regulation Bill May Be Passed This Year... Can't Postpone It Any More" ■ Eaglebrook Advisors Executive "No matter how much you bought when you reached $31.5 BTC" ■ Movie Ticket Subscription Service Moviepass, Sui Partnership According to Decrypt, movie ticket subscription service ■ Analysis "September fall is an opportunity... October bull market likely ↑" ■ Sui, partnership with Circle...USDC launches on Sui Network ■ Bernstein "Fed rate cut to boost DeFi market" ■ VANEK EXECUTIVE "JP Morgan Forecasts Rise in Bitcoin Demand Over Next 10 Years" ■ All members of the U.S. SEC Committee, House of Representatives on the 24th ■ CME Fed Watch "Federal Reserve's 50 basis point cut likely to 62% in September"

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Hot autumn sky and rainbow bridge

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