Johnson

@moonfun

153 Following

56 Followers

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🔸 Is Bitcoin finally going up? 🔸 Bitcoin is up more than 3% this week, holding a $60k support. CPI, PPI and employment indicators are in line with market forecasts, and the rate cut is almost confirmed at the FOMC scheduled for Sept. 18. The market is divided between "Big Cut" (0.5%) and "Baby Cut" (0.25%P). The Sept. 12 rebound seems to be mainly due to the Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos commenting that "Big Cut" is likely.

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• Three On-chain Bitcoin Strong, Weak Ratings Indicators Are Still Down. 1. CryptoQuant's Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has been in a bearish phase since Aug. 27, when the price of Bitcoin was trading at $62K. As long as the indicator remains in a bearish phase, an upward rally looks difficult. 2. The MVRV ratio has been below its 365-day moving average since Aug. 26. It's a sign that there's a risk of additional price adjustments if you cross the 365-day moving average downward. This situation was also seen in May 2021, when Bitcoin fell 36% over the course of two months, and in November 2021, when the last bear market began. 3. Even if long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) realize lower returns, signs of weakness are evident. Long-term holders SOPR ribbons (movement averages of various lengths) have been trending downward since late July. Long-term holders realize returns with lower returns is proof of a lack of new demand for Bitcoin.

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"#BTC Coinbase Premium Converges, Suggests Volatility" Convergence of Coinbase premium prices can bring about great volatility in Bitcoin prices. A recent 1-hour chart of Coinbase Premium shows that the fluctuations are shrinking and the top and bottom are triangulating close to zero. This means that the gap between the price of Bitcoin between Coinbase and Binance is narrowing and finding the right price, and it sends a message that the overall direction of the price of Bitcoin will soon be determined. In the movement of the long adjustment during the bull market in 2021-2022, you can see the Coinbase premium drawing a similar pattern of triangular convergence. Since then, the price of Bitcoin has risen significantly and reached a new high. I think the triangular convergence pattern of the current Coinbase premium price is also a war of wits for whales to determine the direction of the next trend.

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" #ETH funding costs suggest volatility" "In October 23, funding costs were 0.015, similar to today's, and as futures long positions increased, funding costs also increased and Ether prices soared from $1,500 to $4,000. Usually, the crypto market has tended to be buoyant since the summer months, with higher funding ratios needed to see a dramatic upside rally. Monitoring the funby's rise above 0.015 will help track price gains.

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"#BTC transaction fee lowest since 2011" This week, the average Bitcoin transaction fee reached 0.00000695 BTC, its lowest level since 2011. Similarly, the average Bitcoin transaction fee in U.S. dollars also fell to $0.37, its lowest level since 2020. In addition, the commission ratio among block mining rewards fell to 0.012, the lowest level in the past year. Given that Bitcoin block rewards will be halved every 210,000 blocks (about four years), the Bitcoin community will actively discuss security budgets in the future.

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" #ETH Active Addresses Down Trend, Need to Reversal Upside" Ethereum's value is fundamentally related to decentralized networks and active participation by its users. One of the main metrics to measure this participation is the number of unique active addresses in the network, which can be a useful indicator for Ethereum's overall market demand and value. The chart shows a 14-day moving average of Ethereum active addresses, which represents the total number of active addresses, including both senders and receivers of Ethereum transactions. Since late March 2024, this metric has shown a sharp decline, with both user activity and volume declining. This downward trend reflects a bearish market mood driven by lower demand and lower investor engagement. For Ethereum to recover and start a long-term sustainable rally, the trend in the number of active addresses needs to reverse upward.

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" "DERIVATIVE EXCHANGE'S BUCH OUTLOOKS, Suggests Declining Selling Pressure" Ethereum net income and withdrawals are calculated as the difference between ETH deposited on the exchange and ETH withdrawn. Recently, a large amount of Ethereum (40,000 ETH) has been withdrawn from derivatives exchanges, suggesting that selling pressure may decrease as fewer attempts are made to sell spot or hold selling positions in futures.

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"TRON Network Surges Coin Transactions Other Than Stablecoin Among Overall Transactions" About 98% of the TRON network's activity in 2024 was transactions by stablecoins. However, since the launch of the Sun.pump platform on Aug. 9, users have seen a significant increase in their meme-coins creation activity and a major shift in network activity. * Sun.pump: TRON Network-Based Decentralized Application (dApp), Helps Make and Distribute MemeCoin Easy Among the overall transactions on the TRON network, stablecoin activity has decreased from 98% to 75%, a phenomenon that has occurred following the creation of a large amount of meme coins on the Sun.pump platform.

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" #BTCBitcoin UTXO yield at lowest level this year" Bitcoin's "UTXO (Unspent Transaction Outputs) Return" is the ratio of UTXO in current beneficiary rights to the price at the last trading point among all UTXOs, which is an indicator of unrealized returns for all Bitcoin holders. The latest "UTXO (Unspent Transaction Outputs) yield" fell to 68.5% in September from 99% in June and was the lowest level since October 23. However, when the value of this indicator fell to the 68.5% level, there were many rebounding, and in September last year, it soared 273% to an all-time high.

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"Crypto News Reads In One Line On Sep. 06" ■ Near "Hacking X account early this morning... No community damage" ■ Stablecoin P2P Volume This Summer $64.7 Billion 'Biggest Ever' ■ U.S. Sen. "BTC strategic assets include half of national debt ↓" ■ Harris-backed Political Sponsors Allow Crypto Sponsors ■ August Exchange USD-Based Volume Surges... Led By CryptoCom ■ Ripple Asks Court To Postpone SEC Litigation Ruling $1.25 Billion Penalty ■ U.S. Fed Orders Bank of Texas To Stop Trading In Violation Of AML Regulations ■ U.S. Fed Beige Book "Increases Stagnation and Decline of Economic Activity" ■ Foreign media "issuing subpoenas to uniswap investment VC, including New York Attorney General's Office, a16z" ■ U.S. CFTC Fines $170K For Uniswap ■ Analysis "BTC·ETH, Price Volatility Is Expected to Increase Soon" ■ Analysis "Intrinsic Volatility of Cryptocurrency ↓... Price Stabilization Expected" ■ Analyzing "Unfluid BTC Share at All-Time Highs...Supply shock intensifies"

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" #BTC needs to attract new investors to rally higher" The SOPR Ratio is the value obtained by dividing the SOPR of long-term investors by the SOPR of short-term investors. A value of 1 or higher means that long-term investors have realized more profits than short-term investors, and a sharp increase in value indicates that long-term investors have realized large-scale profits. Before these moves take place, UTXO ratios for short-term investors in the 1-3 months tend to increase. Long-term investors who realize profits trigger a drop in Bitcoin prices, while short-term investors entering high prices are seen leaving the market or turning into long-term holders. Recently, the SOPR Ratio has been very high, and most of the 1-3 month short-term investors entering this period are being incorporated into 3-6 month holders with unrealized losses. Eventually, in the Bitcoin cycle, short-term investors take on the volume of long-term investors and turn them into long-term holders.

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" #Low number of active BTC addresses, cause for market downturn" The total number of active addresses in the Bitcoin network is at a recent low, similar to when the price of Bitcoin was around $45k three years ago. The decrease in the number of active addresses means that the overall activity of the Bitcoin network, or transactions, is decreasing, reflecting a declining interest in using the network. This indifference can have a negative impact on prices. Less network activity suggests that price volatility is just as low, and this is the reason for the sideways price range between $50k and $71k. However, for some investors, this downturn could be used as an opportunity to buy Bitcoin in anticipation of a future rally.

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"Crypto News Reads In One Line On Sep. 04" ■ QCP Capital "highly likely to rebound in October...BTC rises 23% on average" ■ Analysis "BTC Dominance, Cycle High... Altcoin Season Not Yet" ■ US SEC Commissioner "S-1 Form for Digital Asset Securities" ■ Sui begins accepting pre-orders for portable game device 'SuiPlay0X1' ■ Hana Financial Group, SKT Invest Stake in Virtual Asset Trust Company Bitgo ■ Wazir X Hacker Estimated Address, 2600 ETH Transfer To Tornado Cash ■ Tsai Corporation Suspends Tsai Card Service This Year Following Tsai Pay ■ Ethics watchdog raises conflict of interest concerns over Trump family cryptocurrency project ■ Ripple CLO "U.S. SEC Should Stop Using 'Crypto Asset Securities' Terms" ■ MemeCoin Market Cap Below $40 Billion... Compared to Top 10 Highs -63.73% ■ Analysis "Fed rate cut by 50 basis points may cause BTC to fall" Bitfinex Is the Weekly Analytical Report ■ Analyzing "BTC Technical Indicators Continues Weak Momentum" ■ Centralized Excha…

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" #BTC cryptocurrency market liquidity increases, suggests buying pressure" The change in market capitalization on the 30th of USDT is reaching $3.65 billion. In order to issue USDT, it is necessary to set the assets of traditional finance as collateral, so it can be seen that external capital is increasing in the cryptocurrency market. Increased liquidity through stablecoins indicates growing demand for cryptocurrencies, but it's not necessarily reflected in the price immediately. It's not affecting real buying pressure right now, but it's likely to affect price increases at any time. In addition, institutional investors are hawking digital assets through time-weighted average price order (TWAP) orders or algorithms to reduce their impact on short-term prices.

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"Cryptocurrency News Reads in One Line on September 3rd" ■ Analysis "BTC Approaches Dead Cross..."Possibly down to $51,000" ■ Analysis "BTC likely to fall in September" ■ Analysis "SOL, Deadcross Occurs...Momentum Weakens" ■ Buying facilities with institutional money to mine virtual assets...an understated food worker ■ Analysis "Etherium Has High RWA Share, But Loses Revenue to Layer 2" ■ Analysis "Slowly Absorbs German, U.S. Government, Mount Gox Sales Market" ■ Number of new ENS domain registrations in August, 30% last month's 比 ↑ ■ 10x Research "BTC Positions Technical Bear Market... Perspectives Short-Term Adjustment" ■ Analysis "If Trump is elected, BTC can rise by $150,000 within this year" ■ Analyzing "BTC hash rate last week was the highest ever...bullish outlook" ■ Exchange BTC Volume Momentum Indicators Down ■ Analysis "Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR Downs"

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🔗 Julio, General Manager of CQ Research, "Analyzing Bitcoin Price Movement in September" I've simulated the price of bitcoin that has moved daily over the past month of September. As a result, the mean value is around $55k, and applying 1 sigma (standard deviation) showed a flow between the lowest $44k and the highest $66k.

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🔗 Wonmun view | author Amazon 📈 Real-time difference "#ETH purchase tax increase and selling pressure and selling pressure." SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) Evaluation of Bitcoin Holdings, or loss of Bitcoin Holdings.If SOPR is higher than 1 and sold, the holder can be interpreted to be interpreted to be interpreted to be interpreted to be interpreted that if it is lower than one. Ethereum net wear, and the amount of money The second car represents the Ethernet input, and the amount of the binary (ETH) net input (ETH) and outflows deposited at the transaction center is calculated at the transaction station. surrender event Recently, SOPR is showing low section than 1 and this can check that investors were lost.However, this section is a good situation to buy long-term investors. a large amount of exchange (Red bar) Many Ethereum transactions are being released at the Viking transaction, and implications for long-term holding pressure for long-term retention.

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" #BTC Distribution Speed Change Mimi, Neutral Situation" #Bitcoin's circulation speed is the total amount of coins moved in a year divided by the total supply, which is an indicator of how fast the coins are circulating in the market. Past cycles have shown an increase in distribution speed before a full-fledged upward rally, due to a large-scale shift in whale investors on-chain and amplified Bitcoin transmission. The pace of distribution, however, has not changed much recently. This has been attributed to uncertain U.S. presidential elections and macroeconomic conditions that have kept large whale investors from confidence in entering the crypto market. However, the situation where the supply of stablecoins continues to increase is positive, and if the aforementioned negative external factors are resolved, it is likely to show an upward rally.

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🔎 Tips for those who plan to attend KBW 1️⃣ KBW Main Event I have more I than MBTIE and I'm 100% I, so I'll explain it based on introverts First of all, it's a waste of money to buy a ticket, and if you got it for free through an event, I recommend you to go see it at least once. It's better to look around with the mindset that you're going to see what projects are spending money these days and what coiners look like, rather than the obsession to go and do something (you'll see, actually, there's nothing much to do). When you enter the venue, there will be booths for each project, and when you look around without thinking, you go to the project booth and ask, "What is this?" and they enthusiastically explain the project from one to ten, like a person who wants to recruit new students to the Otaku club run by fossil students. There will be projects that make you feel like you're serious.

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" Low #BTCHashPrices, Suggesting Buying Opportunities" This chart overlaps the price of Bitcoin (black line) with the hash price indicator (orange line) that reflects the profitability of the miner. The highlighted portion of the chart (blue square) indicates when hash prices have fallen to low levels, and Bitcoin prices also coincide with when they were at or near their lowest point. Historically, the timing of these hash price declines has coincided with the bottom of Bitcoin's price, which could mean that the current low hash price is also nearing the bottom of Bitcoin's price.

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