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Murtaza Hussain
@mazmhussain
“An Israeli airstrike hit a factory in a small town in southern Lebanon and killed at least 10 people, the Lebanese health ministry said on Saturday. Israel’s military said it had targeted a weapons warehouse in the area used by Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group. But the mayor of the town of Toul, where the attack took place, denied the claim.” Contrary to the expectations of myself and others there has not been a big regional war in the Middle East yet but instead this continued slow burn. The reason is effective the United States, which over the past two weeks has parked the 5th fleet and other major naval and aerial assets around Iran and Lebanon to indicate it’d enter a war on behalf of Israel. While they may be willing to fight Israel no one is willing to fight America and these deployments have had a deterrent effect of holding the situation in place for now. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/17/world/middleeast/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-strike-cease-fire.html
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MJC
@mjc716
American backing was always implicit and since oct 7 has at several times been made very explicit. This is like the third time they’ve done some version of this naval positioning move. Treating it as some new piece on the chess board that turned the tide from war is wrong
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Murtaza Hussain
@mazmhussain
This is definitely the largest U.S. naval and aerial deployment since Oct 7, including positioning around Kharg Island port in Iran and threatening to bomb it which has not happened before. Israel is very dependent on this support to avoid a war since population-wise it’s quite small and cannot afford Ukraine-Russia style high casualty conflict of attrition.
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MJC
@mjc716
yes, my point is that this escalation theory and military alliance has been priced in from the beginning. it’s not some long odds flyer israel was counting on after assassinating haniyeh. the original post suggests it was some kind of surprising new development
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