Millie

@millie-x

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1004 Followers

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Gm It’s the most wonderful time of the year!

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Gm We love yall. We love crypto. We love Farcaster. We love @truemarkets.

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A prediction market app with a billion users would be the most prolific information aggregation tool in human history. We're building this. Gm

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Last cycle saw the proliferation of onchain activity, this cycle we’re seeing deep crypto penetration in the mainstream. It feels like a very natural progression for next cycle’s theme to be onchain privacy. 1) Proliferation 2) Penetration 3) Privacy The internet also went through a similar evolution.

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A key catalyst for this cycle’s mainstream adoption will be web3 socials like Farcaster. Coordination tools like this will play a significant role in the rapidly transforming media industry and will export decentralized values to the world in very subtle yet powerful ways. The future is sooo bright 😎

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Farcaster has gotten seriously good since I last used it regularly, impressive stuff. Time for @truemarkets to get into Farcaster mode. The synergies could run deep, the possibilities: endless.

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Gm. Yea definitely.

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Gm frens Been a while 👋

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That's it for now friends, more to come! If you got this far you probably have a decent intuition of the mechanisms in Truth Oracle. If you like the idea, please recast the first cast in the thread for visibility🙏 btw, here's the hello world moment: https://x.com/llamaonthebrink/status/1839536678005792844

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The math behind these guarantees is particularly compelling. With the above referenced values in mind, the oracle offers >99% likelihood of honest resolution when fewer than 1/4th of all Active Attesters are byzantine! That number is impressive because the idea that a quarter of Attesters are byzantine would represent a catastrophic failure on the part of governance, which is supposed to specifically filter attester candidates for Proof of Reputation! 28/n

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Below are charts illustrating the odds of honest resolution if there are 100 Active Attesters with 15 randomly selected to resolve disputes: 27/n

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Probabilistic Guarantees: In Truth Oracle, given that the highest arbiters of truth are PoR Attesters, the protocol offers a set of probabilistic guarantees based on a few variables: - total number of Attesters - number of randomly selected attesters - percentage honest The probability of a (subjectively) honest resolution follows a cumulative hypergeometric probability distribution. The odds start low when honest attesters are a minority, and increase rapidly as the proportion of honest attesters grows, providing very strong guarantees as the % honest approaches a supermajority. 26/n

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There is also a direct incentive to resolve these disputes, should they happen. The incentive is designed such that the quicker an Attester votes, the larger the reward. For more details about this process, I recommend examining the white paper where there are a lot more details about these mechanisms, or tune into some more threads on this topic! 25/n

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The game theory of the lottery system is designed to ensure that there is a certain level of participation among attesters pools. The Prize Adjustment target is a configurable parameter controlled by governance. By registering for the lottery, an Attester is signalling to the protocol that they're interested in resolving escalated disputes, and should one occur, they are willing to respond. Attesters that are not responsive to disputes can be removed over time if they miss too many. In general, governance is expected to regularly admit new candidates with provable reputations and ensure that attester pools are large enough to make the Prize Adjustment target feasible. If a dispute is escalated, the protocol randomly selects a jury made up of Attesters who've registered for that epoch to resolve the matter. This randomly selected jury is responsible for delivering the final verdict in a resolution path. If an attester is not responsive after some time, another one is selected to replace them. 24/n

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After a candidate is admitted to an Attester Pool, they are free to opt into this lottery if they like. If not they can pretend it doesn't exist. The lottery runs every epoch and is similar to staking rewards in PoS blockchains. Every epoch the lottery spontaneously resolves and randomly rewards a prize to a registered Attester. After that, a new epoch begins and all the Attesters who opted in mid way through the previous epoch are registered for the new epoch. The lottery recurs every epoch, but the prize for the winning Attester adjusts every round based on a target number of Active Attesters (attesters that have opted in). This concept draws inspiration from bitcoin's difficulty adjustment, which adjusts the difficulty of solving the cryptographic hash function necessary to mine a block, by targeting a set number of blocks produced per epoch. 23/n

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