Murtaza Hussain on Warpcast

Content pfp

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Murtaza Hussain pfp

Murtaza Hussain

There's not going to be a civil war; not today and not anytime soon. America is a fluid economic and cultural zone without dividing lines that could organize political violence. If you look at data, the most significant form of polarization politically is based on intimate individualistic factors like gender and age. Most importantly, no country with a high per-capita GDP has ever had a civil war. The logic is simple: Even if you're really mad about something in politics, in America you still have the option of watching the football game and going to Cinnabon. The minimal bread of Cinnabon and circus of the NFL is democratically accessible to the masses on a level unlike anything in human history. To the vast majority of people that rationally sounds like a better option than rotting away in prison or giving up ones life or health for some abstract cause. Rich countries don't have civil wars, they just yell alot. Maybe a civil war could be organized in the metaverse one day so people can blow off steam.

26 replies

5 recasts

66 reactions

Nounish Prof ⌐◧-◧🎩 pfp

Nounish Prof ⌐◧-◧🎩

Agree that an all out civil war is unlikely for many reasons but feel like we’ve been in a civil cold war for 8 years, mostly digital/media fueled, with the occasional skirmish IRL. I don’t see this ending any time soon and is likely to only ramp up from here. Comparing GDP for the US and European nations in mid 1800s prior to America’s Civil War, US GDP was equal to or higher than all but the UK. So I’m not sure that GDP is always an indicator. But agree with the general premise.

1 reply

1 recast

9 reactions

bigbully🙃 pfp

Would argue that the word "war" needs to be redefined for the modern day. But yes, I don't think we will see arms taken up against another in a significantly organized manner. But I think the culture war is a war we won't find ourselves ending anytime soon. Both internally in the US and externally.

1 reply

0 recast

3 reactions

tricil pfp

I disagree polarization has increased rapidly since Ferguson on the right you had: anti-LGBTQ covid denial anti-black lives mattering post-truth pro-puritanical (see project 2025) pro-guns (sure second amendment is cool but literally anyone can get an AR-15 and spray a crowd, a common occurrence, even) the left: antifa, which literally just meant “anti fascist” woke, which isn’t a bad way to be: I’d rather be “woke” than an asshole and people lined up on each side each year. it’s only getting worse.

3 replies

0 recast

4 reactions

Commstark 🎩🫂 pfp

Commstark 🎩🫂

although I agree with you (America has a near zero chance of civil war) for fun: would you consider the War in Mexico a civil war? Personally I would, given the size, scale, and cultural influence of the Cartels

1 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

John Camkiran pfp

You give some sound reasons as to why it’s very unlikely, but saying a tail event won’t occur because a similar such event has never occurred is a serious lapse in logic.

1 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Snibb123.eth pfp

What about something like a low grade insurgency? Ireland and England and Germany all had militant conflicts in that way.

1 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Sean Wince 🎩🐹🟢↑ pfp

Sean Wince 🎩🐹🟢↑

Civil war ain't gonna happen but we'll probably see increased frequency of politically motivated violent attacks, effectively domestic terrorism. Metaverse civil war is an interesting idea. There have already been several digital "conflicts" in the Internet age that inform what the future could look like. Drake vs Kendrick, Gamergate, and GME short squeeze to name a few. 420 $degen

1 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Vinay Vasanji pfp

@vinayvasanji.eth

It's worth evaluating what exactly we mean when we use the term civil war It is commonly thrown around in political discourse today, but definitions matter. There might not be a civil war in terms of large scale physical violence and mass mobilization, but - for example - Ray Dalio describes it as this: "A clash between state governments and a fractured central government appears likely, which I would regard as a type of civil war even if not violent." Source: https://time.com/6991271/civil-war-conflict-ray-dalio/

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Samuel pfp

@samuellhuber.eth

the circus being omnipresent (NFL, et al) will likely stay around even if economic prosperity of the US fades. To me the question becomes if/when does dispair due to living standards and felt problems becomes large enough to take up arms. Germany 1929 had 6,457$ GDP per capita and the US was at 11,954$. Yet Germany went on to end the Weimar Republic based on that hardship, while being 9th on the GDP per capita scale in 1929 Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_by_past_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

vrypan |--o--| pfp

What people enjoy today is always taken for granted. The key is how they expect their life to be in the future. Do they expect their and their kids' future to be better? They won't risk loosing it. If not, things start to break. Even more important, do they feel they're on the same boat as their neighbors, the people they see on the street, their friends from school? If they struggle with the same struggles, they can take them. If not, they feel left behind. And if this feeling can be shaped into us/them, you get social divide and social unrest. Civil war? Probably not. Social unrest and divide to such extent that affect the economy and civil liberties? I wouldn't rule this out just because people have access to NFL and cheap, unhealthy food.

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Just Build pfp

Cinnabon has saved countless lives since the 1980's. Its nice to see they finally getting the recognition they deserve. ✌️😁

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

JAKE pfp

well this is as hopeful as it is reasonable, thanks for the perspective

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Chinmay 🎩☀️ pfp

Chinmay 🎩☀️

Cinnabon avoids all the fights -- civil wars and marriage wars alike!!

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Sunny pfp

"Rich countries don't have civil wars, they just yell alot." might just be my fav sentence I read today lol

0 reply

0 recast

3 reactions

stellabelle🎩 pfp

stellabelle🎩

do u live in the usa? we are basically at war now

0 reply

0 recast

1 reaction

Brendan Forde pfp

I think you gravely underestimate the decline. There are many points in time to look to. Vietnam would be one. Watergate another. October 17th, 1975. December 8th, 1980. October 19th, 1987... There's a resonance returning to America, borne of ill deeds, and the desires of callous men. The America we once thought we knew is a postcard lost in the mail. https://www.gothamcenter.org/blog/a-crisis-without-keynes-the-1975-new-york-city-fiscal-crisis-revisited

1 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

eugen 🎭🍄 pfp

Interesting perspective on civil wars and modern society. It's true that the availability of distractions like sports and consumer goods can play a role in maintaining social stability. What do you think about the idea of using technology to channel societal frustrations?

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Kat 🎩🔥 pfp

The working class can’t afford Cinnabon. The data also shows that more and more Americans are giving up on life altogether.

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Marshall Banana pfp

Marshall Banana

@otherworldly000

I hope you’re right. But what do you think the public response would have been if Trump had been assassinated? I’m sure right-wing militants would have escalated the situation by targeting Democrat leaders. And then the situation spirals further. Perhaps perhaps not into full-blown civil war. But still, widespread acts of political violence and general civil unrest will not be a pleasant experience.

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction