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Leo
@lsn
The US continues to accelerate pressure to get TSMC out of Taiwan, reducing its dependence on the island. In my view, this is setting the stage for a peaceful subservience to China on the Taiwan issue. By bringing TSMC chip making expertise to the US, America can afford to let Taiwan go without a fight. Today TSMC announced $100bn to build 3 new fabs in the US, between 4nm to 2nm. This seems to go against the Taiwan governments restriction on leading edge exports. Meanwhile, the end game options are entering the Overton window: TSMC merging with Intel or selling to the US govt.
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Dirk Siebels
@disic
Very interesting, also for other countries in Europe and Asia which would then be less reliant on Taiwan and more reliant on the US. So what’s the play for them in this situation? It won’t be easy.
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Leo
@lsn
My default answer is sphere of influence. But I think the US is highly unlikely to leverage chip exports to other countries, particularly if the industry is teetering if Taiwan goes kaput. Samsung makes down to 7nm chips in South Korea and there’s high quantities in SK/Japan; Europe does down to 10nm in Netherlands and Israel https://technologyglobal.substack.com/p/semiconductor-manufacturing-facilities
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Dirk Siebels
@disic
Good overview on current capacities but these are long-term investments. Intel’s big investments in Germany and Poland, for example, were put on hold for at least two years. Those were a big push for more capacity in the EU and there’s no obvious alternative at the moment.
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