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LEVIN 🎩
@levingood
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Key Market Dynamics Tonight’s U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) data release (expected: +135K jobs, unemployment rate steady at 4.1%) will trigger market volatility, with the following critical narratives: Data Divergence: Forecasts vary widely—Citi predicts job gains as low as 95K, Nomura expects unemployment to rise to 4.2%, while high-frequency data hints at a potential surprise up to 200K. Bull vs. Bear Logic: Pessimists: Weak data (<100K jobs) reinforces recession fears, boosting rate-cut bets (gold rallies); moderate data (~140K) may signal a temporary rebound, but sticky wage inflation could delay Fed easing. Optimists: Strong data (>200K) lifts risk assets short-term, though tariff risks and economic cracks cap dollar gains; a drop in unemployment could shift focus to economic resilience.
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LEVIN 🎩
@levingood
Gold’s Path: Technicalsupportat3,050amissmaydrivepricestowardtheall−timehighof 3,050—amissmaydrivepricestowardtheall−timehighof3,167; a beat could trigger short-term pullbacks, but geopolitics and rate-cut expectations underpin mid-term upside. Wild Cards: Trump’s tariff threats and South Korea’s political turmoil fuel safe-haven demand, while wage growth and data revisions may amplify swings.
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