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LEVIN 🎩

@levingood

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Key Data and Earnings Schedule for Next Week (Critical for May Rate Cut Decision) Major Data Releases Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings (labor market indicator), Consumer Confidence Index Wednesday: ADP Employment Report, Q1 GDP Preliminary Estimate, Core PCE Price Index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), earnings reports from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Manufacturing PMI, earnings reports from Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls (job additions, unemployment rate, wage growth) Key Focus Areas Economic Momentum: Will GDP growth slow? Will Core PCE align closer to the Fed’s target? Labor Market Signals: A weak Nonfarm report could strengthen expectations for a May rate cut. Tech Sector Trends: Earnings from the "Big Four" tech giants (MSFT, META, AAPL, AMZN) will test the AI and cloud growth narrative, impacting broader market sentiment. Strategy Notes Market volatility may intensify amid shifting rate-cut expectations and inflation data.
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Mystery Whale Moves 118MinBitcoin:BullishBetorWarningSign?∗∗Afreshwalletjustpulled∗∗1,398BTC(118MinBitcoin:BullishBetorWarningSign?∗∗Afreshwalletjustpulled∗∗1,398BTC(118.3 million) from Kraken, igniting debates across crypto circles. While the move screams institutional involvement, its intent remains shrouded. Key Context Whale Patterns: Massive withdrawals often precede major market shifts—think accumulation before rallies or stealth exits before downturns. Macro Jitters: Upcoming U.S. inflation data and global trade tensions loom, creating a powder keg for Bitcoin’s price. Technical Signals: BTC’s price clings to a critical support zone. A break below 85KcouIdtriggerpanic;asurgepast 85Kcouldtriggerpanic;asurgepast88K might fuel FOMO Bottom Line This isn’t retail money. Whether it’s a calculated bet on Bitcoin’s post-halving surge or a hedge against macro chaos, one thing’s clear: Big players are positioning. Traders, brace for volatility. Hodlers, keep calm and stack sats
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Global Financial Markets in Turmoil: Crypto and U.S. Stocks Plunge in "Bloodbath" Within 24 Hours, Tariff Storm Triggers Historic Sell-Off U.S. Stocks Crash to Record Lows, Panic Echoes 2008 Crisis Market Collapse: Following two consecutive days of steep declines last week, U.S. stock futures opened sharply lower on April 7, with Nasdaq futures plunging over 5%, S&P 500 futures down nearly 5%, and Dow futures dropping 3.7%. In just two days, $6.6 trillion in market value evaporated, marking the worst quarterly start since 2008. The Nasdaq has entered a technical bear market (down over 20% from its peak). Recession Alarm: JPMorgan raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 60%, while Goldman Sachs warned of a 35% chance within the next 12 months. Analysts caution that prolonged "reciprocal tariffs" under Trump’s policies could push both the U.S. and Europe into recession.
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[Visual Analysis: Parallels Between SP500 & BTC Market Behavior] Attached are comparative charts showing: Top: SP500 Index trajectory (Feb-Mar 2020) Bottom: BTC price movement (Feb-Mar 2020) Key Observations: While BTC exhibited amplified volatility (theoretically 2%+ drop per 1% SP500 decline), it maintained relative resilience until the March 12 (312) liquidity crisis. This decoupling pattern warrants attention in current market conditions. [Cross-Asset Liquidation Mechanics] Q: Why did gold - the traditional safe haven - decline during the crash? A: Two primary drivers: Industrial Demand Factor: Gold's use in electronics manufacturing created tariff-induced supply chain pressures Margin Call Dominance: Institutional liquidations forced leveraged positions to unwind, making gold (high liquidity asset) first casualty for cash raising. Long-term gold fundamentals remain intact.
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U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Key Market Dynamics Tonight’s U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) data release (expected: +135K jobs, unemployment rate steady at 4.1%) will trigger market volatility, with the following critical narratives: Data Divergence: Forecasts vary widely—Citi predicts job gains as low as 95K, Nomura expects unemployment to rise to 4.2%, while high-frequency data hints at a potential surprise up to 200K. Bull vs. Bear Logic: Pessimists: Weak data (<100K jobs) reinforces recession fears, boosting rate-cut bets (gold rallies); moderate data (~140K) may signal a temporary rebound, but sticky wage inflation could delay Fed easing. Optimists: Strong data (>200K) lifts risk assets short-term, though tariff risks and economic cracks cap dollar gains; a drop in unemployment could shift focus to economic resilience.
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Market Snapshot BTC: $82k Asian markets tanked (Japan -4%, Korea -3%) All eyes on April 2nd US tariff decision – 10x bigger than Trump election hype Strategy First support ($89k) broken. Next buy zone: 80k.Ifitcrashesto∗∗ 80k.Ifitcrashesto∗∗75k**, full send. DCA only – no reckless all-ins. Keep 30% cash for black swan events. Must-Buy List Chains: SOL, SUI (buy aggressively on deep dips) Oracle: LINK (essential Web3 backbone) RWA: ONDO (bridging real-world assets) Meme: DOGE (retail’s mood ring) Rules of Engagement Skip low-cap trash. Only coins with $500M+ daily volume. 2025 playbook: Buy less, hold harder. No portfolio flipping. Crash indicators: Gold price, CNY/USD rate, US Treasury yields. Final Move Load up bullets now. Start stacking below 80k.At80k.At75k, empty the clip. Buy when others bleed – but don’t turn greedy. Stay frosty. 🚀
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Analysis of Recent BTC Transfer Events from Mt. Gox Timeline and Key Developments: Small Test Transaction (10 minutes ago) 0.000017 BTC transferred to Kraken deposit address: This very small transfer may be a test of the transaction channel, similar to the small test model in July 2024 (e.g., 0.021 BTC transfer), used to verify address validity or the exchange integration process. If the test is successful, larger compensation transfers may be initiated later. 893.41 BTC Transferred to New Address (1FodP...b28DB) Usage Speculation: Combined with other transfer records from today (March 25, 2025), the 893.41 BTC may be related to the same batch transferred to hot wallets, intended for subsequent compensation to creditor trading platforms (such as BitGo or partner exchanges). The compensation process typically involves transferring BTC from cold wallets to hot wallets, then distributing to creditors.
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🚨 NEXT WEEK'S MACRO NUCLEAR EVENT: APRIL 2 TARIFF BOMB INCOMING (March 24-28, 2025) WARNING: Trump’s "reciprocal tariffs" drop April 2 – 10x bigger than FOMC, markets face MAX PAIN VOLATILITY. Trade wars = degen casino mode. LFG or get rekt. 🔥 MACRO DATA TRIFECTA: TARIFF WARM-UP 1. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Wed) Hot Take: Real-time GDP tracker. If GDPNow flashes red → panic mode ON for tariffs & rate cuts. Current consensus: Q4 GDP final print at 3.2%. Miss = recession FUD pumps. 2. US Q4 GDP Final (Thurs) Degens Watch: Will 3.3% growth get revised down? Lower number = risk assets dump, USD/GOLD moon. Paradox Alert: Strong data = "Fed no-cut" copium → stocks bleed anyway. 3. February PCE Inflation (Fri) Nuclear Fuel: Core PCE at 2.8% → Powell’s nightmare. Beat = "stagflation" narrative → BTC/SPY DUMP. Trump’s angle: "Tariffs fix inflation!" → policy excuse to go full hawk.
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