From what I can tell, the best all-time ROI on Polymarket is only about 17%*. 

If smart money can get rich in prediction markets, why aren't they? 

*leaderboard ranks by total profit rather than % so its possible non-whales have higher ROI

From what I can tell, the best all-time ROI on Polymarket is only about 17%*. 

If smart money can get rich in prediction markets, why aren't they? 

*leaderboard ranks by total profit rather than % so its possible non-whales have higher ROI

https://polymarket.com/leaderboard

musician & dev gigameshmusic.com github.com/gigamesh

i think your footnote answers the question, people who are moving the largest sums are making more conservative bets

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or the whales are the dumb money. but I have a strong feeling there are very few active traders who have even doubled their money.