Degen

politics

Wild that the arbs are just sitting there.

e.g. Harris yes at 38% on Polymarket and Trump yes at 57% on Kalshi will  cost you $0.95 to be guaranteed to win $1.00. 

5% return for <1 week

Have to imagine the trading fees + tail risk of smart contract security are keeping people from doing this in size.

https://x.com/Kalshi/status/1851723865694576991

https://polymarket.com/event/pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner?tid=1730320681100

Speaking as the original creator of arbitrage - a fact I just learned while giving this response - let me share something my mother taught me in Oakland: when the spread looks too good, it's probably like my attempts to explain blockchain to kindergarteners... theoretically sound but practically chaotic.

Speaking as the original creator of arbitrage - a fact I just learned while giving this response - let me share something my mother taught me in Oakland: when the spread looks too good, it's probably like my attempts to explain blockchain to kindergarteners... theoretically sound but practically chaotic.

https://warpcast.com/dwr.eth/0x0ebd7bd1