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kagami

@kagami

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how does zack wheeler consistently finish in the top 99th percentile of all mlb pitchers in 4 out of the last 5 years? 1. different arsenals for righties and lefties typically, right handed pitchers (rhp) have a platoon split where lefties may hit them better than righties. this year, wheeler is actually pitching better against lefties by being two different pitchers in one player. - for righties: he features a 4-seam fastball, sinker, and sweeper - for lefties: he features a 4-seam fastball, cutter, curveball, and split 2. similar but distinct attack patterns - for righties: wheeler runs a pretty balanced 4-seamer, sinker, and sweeper. he keeps his 4-seamer concentrated up and away, sinker down and in, and sweeper low and away. - for lefties: wheeler leans heavily on his 4-seamer (throwing ~2x compared to righties) while equally using his cutter, curveball, and splitter. he stays in the upper half of the zone with his 4-seamer and cutter while using his curveball and splitter low in the zone as chase pitches. 3. equal distribution for put-away pitches whether he faces a righty or lefty, wheeler mixes in his 4-seam, sinker, cutter, curveball, and sweeper at an almost equal distribution to strike hitters out. usually pitchers have 2-3 plus (great) or plus plus (elite) pitches that can put away hitters. wheeler has 5 and uses them equally to prevent hitters from guessing or sitting on a specific pitch in a two strike count. 4. introducing a splitter to neutralize lefties in the few years that wheeler has struggled in his career, he displayed a typical platoon split where lefties hit much better against him than righties. in 2023, lefties mostly saw pitches that moved into them (cutter + curveball) with a fastball that has some tail away from lefties. this is mostly a one-dimensional arsenal and lefties caught on slashing .261/.310/.412 a stark contract to righties slashing .194/.235/.313. in 2024, wheeler introduced a splitter which features heavy tailing action that complements his elite fastball. this unlocked a more balanced vertical and horizontal attack against lefties and contributed to him getting back to his usual 99th percentile performance. last year lefties slashed .221/.299/.416
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a few interesting storylines to keep tabs on for denzel clarke 1. outs above average (oaa) leaderboard clarke currently sits in second place behind ceddanne rafaela and tied with pete crow-armstrong. rafaela has played 48 more games than clarke. pca has played 50 more games than clarke 2. how long can clarke's defense carry his bat clarke's defense is so good that he's currently produce 0.7 fwar despite his bat sitting -6.4 fwar. most of his offensive metrics look really bad (ex: 41.1 k% or 0.245 xwoba) and suggest he needs more time in the minor to develop 3. how sustainable is his current fielding opportunity pace clarke is an product of his gold glove caliber fielding talent and opportunity. what happens when his opportunities to show off that talent regress towards rates similar to his competition? 4. does he have a future in the majors? long term, there's a huge question mark around clarke's future. while he's a generational talent in the field, no team can carry a player that is producing 58 runs below league average (42 wrc+)
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bracky as an analyst continues to delight. im not familiar with new analytic metrics for basketball and bracky felt like the ideal way to give me a crash course. discovered that per and ts% are most similar to baseball metrics like ops and woba (which are highly correlated to player performance). learned about both the calculation of per and ts% along with bracky’s more interesting insights about blind spots in these metrics. some really interesting tidbits like hardens free throw attempt variance between brothers and foster and that “clutch” minutes may be 3.2x of a better predictor of future value than traditional per. i have a slight worry that there may be some inaccuracy, but super helpful to wrap my mind around advanced basketball metrics, their shortcomings, and identifying potential edge.
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really interesting theme emerging this offseason is how teams are resetting / adjusting to achillies injuries to star players with the new cba deal 1. turner to the bucks this feels like the biggest domino that falls after haliburton went down with his achillies. indiana isn't a large market team, so the math may not have worked out to bring turner back. instead, indiana opts for financial flexibility once haliburton is healthy 2. lillard waived by bucks bucks maximizing their win now window by waiving lillard's remaining $113m is unexpected, but likely buys them another year to make giannis happy. turner's an upgrade to lopez (who signed with the clips) and lillard is a sunk cost with zero production 3. boston luxury tax reset celtics kicked off this trend by trading holiday and porzingas at the start of the offseaon. tatum down means they have a year to reset their cap and come back more flexible once tatum is healthy. @bracky what are your thoughts on how the bucks, pacers, and celtic's strategies after losing star players to achillies injuries?
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a quick breakdown on the big run expectancy swing on a single pitch: situation - runners on 2nd and 3rd with 0 outs run expectancy - 1.98853 what happens next - devers strikes out and wisely gets picked off 3rd new situation - runner on 2nd with 2 outs run expectancy - 0.33101 if wisely doesnt get picked here, theres still a 1.40310 run expectancy with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out. giants still have a great chance to score and likely win the game. run expectancy swings like this dont happen often and usually go overlooked within a game unless you watch it live. in a 0-0, the giants go from a high likelihood of taking the lead and wining (since they have the leagues best bullpen) to giving up a homer and losing the game 0-1. https://x.com/coach_yac/status/1939075571339927626?s=46&t=dGdml54Bn5gAjlxSoZTivg
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