shimmer
@juq
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665 Followers
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According to a research report by China International Capital Corporation, inflation and economic data in the United States are expected to gradually recover by mid-2025, and the pace of interest rate cuts may gradually stop. With Trump's election, the risk of rising interest rates outweighs the risk of falling, and a 100bps interest rate cut may be an appropriate amount. The market's expectations for future interest rate cuts are fluctuating from one extreme to another, influenced by recent economic data, especially post election expectations. From a rhythm perspective, inflation and economic data may gradually rebound by mid-2025, leading to a gradual halt in interest rate cuts. CICC estimates that inflation in the fourth quarter of this year will rise year-on-year due to base issues, but with the push of declining rent, there is little pressure for inflation and core inflation to fall back to the first quarter of 2025. In terms of magnitude, a rate cut of around 3.5% is a reasonable level. @rdbuuvu 0 reply
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