did any of the people who confidently predicted SBF would never face any consequences due to his political connections ever own up to being wrong?

I work for Ethereum at the Ethereum Foundation.

I was moderately confident he'll spend less than a year in prison (was hoping to be wrong), and I did gladly own up to being wrong in the respective chats. I probably would have taken a fun bet if someone was confident the other way, but seemed most people were pessimistic about justice that year.

But [random defendant] got a longer sentence for [different crime]. Must be the deep state at work