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John Grant

@jlg

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155 Followers
John Grant pfp
John Grant
@jlg
Even with perfect information and infinite computing power some things are inherently unknowable https://www.quantamagazine.org/next-level-chaos-traces-the-true-limit-of-predictability-20250307/
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John Grant
@jlg
Vibe Coding -> Vibe-Driven Development (VDD) -> AI-Driven Specification-Oriented Software Development AlexNet in 2012 based on the CNN architecture that used GPUs and CUDA was the breakthrough moment for deep learning. So, from that perspective it's been just over a decade to get to "vibe coding". It's conceivable AI-driven specification-oriented software development will emerge by 2029, if not before.
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John Grant
@jlg
AI-driven, specification-oriented development enables "vibe coding" - potentially a punctuated equilibrium in software development. "Specification debt" is the new technical debt. How should we prepare?
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John Grant
@jlg
Needcasting and Vibe Bargaining https://johnlgrant.substack.com/p/needcasting-and-vibe-bargaining
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John Grant pfp
John Grant
@jlg
Been thinking about GenAI from the nature vs nurture perspective. GenAI responses aren't just products of their training data (nurture) but also their fundamental architecture (nature). When Gemini/Claude/etc output different responses based on how prompts are phrased, it shows both aspects at work. So, having more data or querying multiple GenAI models will never overcome the inherent limitations of GenAI to perform true deductive, abductive or analogical reasoning. That's a constraint of their nature, not just their nurture. Just as legal systems aim to provide equal access to justice regardless of privilege or status (though often falling short), I suspect diverse access to frontier AI models should be a fundamental principle too. Different communities asking different questions may not just uncover novel applications but potentially reveal specific practical/ethical limitations that might otherwise remain hidden
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John Grant
@jlg
In the interest of learning in the open, I've written a response to Simon Wardley's essay 'Non deterministic Languages'. I clarify my position on the distinction between training data and symbolic instructions. While acknowledging our differing perspectives, I also look at the evolution of AI communication through 'strange protocols' and the shift to open science. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/mechanism-matters-strange-protocols-open-science-john-grant-k4kee
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John Grant
@jlg
>A closed, state-of-the-art AI model may still be the winner in benchmarks. But an open, state-of-the-art AI model accrues soft power and wins the mindshare of talent everywhere over time – a long-term advantage that cannot be underestimated. That advantage is currently and decidedly tilting towards DeepSeek. https://interconnect.substack.com/p/has-american-soft-power-peaked
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John Grant
@jlg
The Persistence of AI-Mediated Protocols https://www.linkedin.com/posts/boundaryless-pdt-3eo_protocols-activity-7302659093784088577-TI8G
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John Grant
@jlg
This interesting Boundaryless Dispatch includes a section that builds on the notion of AI-mediated protocols through the lens of ontologies as "enabling constraints". Their analysis focuses on business implications, how AI agents might transform competitive dynamics by reducing integration costs and weakening traditional business moats. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ai-agents-new-competitive-landscape-portfolio-strategy-m48ge/
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John Grant
@jlg
How long before LLMs, particularly those trained on synthetic data, start to label the field of anthro-complexity as 'Nuancology'?
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John Grant
@jlg
Problematise: Abstract optimism without a roadmap is just wishful thinking.
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John Grant
@jlg
Interesting read. But the r2 values 0.32~0.44 indicate there's something amiss, right? Might suggest that human-AI interactions aren't following deterministic patterns. They're emergent and context-specific instead https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/publication/the-impact-of-generative-ai-on-critical-thinking-self-reported-reductions-in-cognitive-effort-and-confidence-effects-from-a-survey-of-knowledge-workers/
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John Grant
@jlg
"… the persistent weirdness of our times. One in which we get free AI from a hedge fund and $200 a month AI from a nonprofit …" https://www.youtube.com/live/zdy9K4UWplM?si=HUN6Qb6Fx3UWFzBG&t=1164
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John Grant
@jlg
Anyone familiar with the Strategy Evaluation Protocol (SEP)? I'm looking for some pointers or examples of how SEP is currently being used to support Open Science.
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John Grant
@jlg
From a certain perspective, Open WebUI looks like a mashup between a terminal emulator and a web browser. But I suspect there’s more to it. I think this might be a nascent form of what the next generation of operating systems will look and feel like.
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John Grant
@jlg
“OpenAI's o3 finds a polynomial time factoring algorithm, none of your crypto assets are safe” https://x.com/realgeorgehotz/status/1881142120171626867
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John Grant
@jlg
I'm finding Jensen Huang's presentations more entertaining than recent Netflix sci-fi output. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k82RwXqZHY8
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John Grant
@jlg
Should Elon Musk succeed in triggering a sovereign debt crisis, he's well positioned to lobby for X to be the default CBDC platform.
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John Grant pfp
John Grant
@jlg
Any sufficiently reductionist explanation is indistinguishable from superstition.
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John Grant pfp
John Grant
@jlg
>"Our collective performance last year was not among our best, with five wrong answers. Following polling at the time, we discounted Trump’s re-election chances. Japanese interest rates did rise above zero; investors didn’t move back into bonds as expected; X didn’t go bankrupt; and there was no deal, yet, to return the Parthenon marbles to Greece. Single minds, it seems, can sometimes beat 20: two entrants to our reader competition got all 20 questions right, and the overall winner, Ercole Durini of London, was even spot on with the tiebreaker." https://www.ft.com/content/ac44e3a5-36ee-4cf8-af57-06a1ba51baa4
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