ilya
@ilyat
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“momentum is the moat”
i used to be a big believer in the “artisan product” mindset. build intentionally. go deep. really understand why people use something. everything centred around one question: is the product retentive? do people come back? are there network effects? the classic moat theory.
then ai hit. and that mental model cracked. because everything’s moving too fast. models evolve weekly. you can spend three months perfecting a thoughtful, nuanced feature — and then openai ships something new and suddenly your whole product is obsolete.
at some point, you realise: it can’t be about slow craftsmanship anymore. it can’t be about waiting for perfect product-market fit. it has to be about speed.
the only ones surviving this moment are the ones who know how to build while falling. it’s like assembling a plane mid-air with no parachute, and somehow enjoying it. the people who want to build through that chaos are the ones who are winning right now.
and it’s not just product speed. it’s everything: distribution, marketing, positioning. ai still feels magical to most people. there’s novelty. curiosity. so if you move fast enough, and time it right, even a small wave can hit big.
that’s why i believe momentum is the moat. not the tech. not defensibility. not even retention — not yet. just motion. are you moving fast enough to stay in the game?
eventually, retention starts to matter again. we’ll come back to daily habits and long-term love. but we’re not there yet. right now, we’re still in phase one. and in phase one, momentum is the moat. 1 reply
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There’s this concept in military strategy called the OODA loop. It comes from Colonel John Boyd, the guy who basically rewrote the rules of manoeuvre warfare. His take is that speed is everything because it strikes at the psychology of anyone in a fight.
Here’s the loop:
1. Observe – grab every scrap of information about what’s happening.
2. Orient – frame that info in light of your training, culture, and the exact situation.
3. Decide – pick a course of action.
4. Act – carry it out, then jump straight back to observe.
Boyd’s argument is simple: whoever cycles through those four steps fastest almost always wins. If you spin your loop quicker than the other side, you get inside theirs. While they’re still processing an old snapshot of reality, you’ve already changed it. They have to restart their loop, you sprint ahead again, and the gap widens.
The same dynamic on the internet. Twitter rockets through OODA cycles in minutes. Legacy media lumbers along on a 24-hour news rhythm, so by the time a newspaper prints a story, the meme it’s covering has already morphed. Social media wags the dog; old-school outlets just get dragged around.
Those who control the meme, control the narrative. 3 replies
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