Trading

My previous view from late OCT 2023 until Jan 2024 was that BTCUSD would rally until the ETF launch and then we would go back down until the narrative around the halving would start again mid March 2024. I thought we would retrace 30-40% of gains until early March. 

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These last few weeks have shown that the flows into these ETFS were more persistent and larger than originally anticipated, therefore the rally has continued after that brief dip we had in January. 

In addition, seeing continuous outflow from exchanges. 

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What’s your exact definition of a crypto bro?

Nicehash has the halving in less than 2 months:

https://www.nicehash.com/countdown/btc-halving-2024-05-10-12-00

My current view with the recent rally in prices these past few days has this rally going until mid-MAY 2024 with the expectation that the halving narrative takes over in 2 -4 weeks in March.

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In between now and the halving I'm looking for potential events, drivers, catalysts that would be strong enough to break down this rally and I'm struggling to find any. Stocks look like they're not slowing down with the AI momentum, geopolitics or world events don't seem to affect markets

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2024 Elections volatility doesn't look like its affecting the markets or crypto atm, and although world economies (China, Japan, Germany) look like they're in recession it hasn't had an impact on crypto or the US... yet. 

What else could break down this rally besides the usual overexuberance / leverage trading?

If this rally continues until post halving, my view then is we will have a summer lull where we get a 20-30% correction and after that clears alt-season begins. This is where you start speculating on memecoins, dog tokens and other random crap. The barometer of altseason I'm using this time around is SOL/ETH and SOLBTC

Solana looks like it hasn't bottomed yet but once momentum turns, it feels like thats the official start of altseason. 

In the meantime I'll be watching these indicators which will make me change my view:

- Outflows from BTC ETFS on a weekly basis
- Inflows into exchanges
- Excessive funding rates in perps

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- Rampant retail speculation through sentiment in the news (think taxi drivers telling you which crypto to buy)
- Exogenous outside events (something like covid Jan 2020). 

If none of these events happen, I can't see why the rally can't continue past the halving, but I would love to be enlightened. 

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So to summarize:

1. Thought rally would last from Oct 2023 - Jan 2024 with a 30-40% correction after ETF launch
2. Now I think the rally lasts until Mid-May 2024 with a 25% correction from top and a summer lull where prices do not move outside a 20% band. 
3. Believe altseason starts during or after summer lull.

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Things I'm looking into now:

1. NFTS

Things I'm looking into right when altseason begins (remember its when SOLETH & SOLBTC turns bullish again (in no order of importance:

1. Defi Tokens
2. the New hot layer 2 (think next solana
3. Memecoins
4. Calls on BTC related options in equities (COIN, BITO, RIOT etc.)

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On the reasoning behind NFTs, the gas used on NFTs is at an all-time low and floor prices look like they're at an all-time bottom. Orange shows NFT gas relative to other transaction types on Ethereum. 

I welcome all and any constructive criticism for any of my opinions I expressed above.

Final footnote because I'm an idiot, I forgot to mention the potential for an ETH ETF which could extend this rally even further past May. There's been speculation on launch but doesn't seem as concrete as the BTC ETF.

Final footnote because I'm an idiot, I forgot to mention the potential for an ETH ETF which could extend this rally even further past May. There's been speculation on launch but doesn't seem as concrete as the BTC ETF.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ethereum-etf-approval-expected-may-155915399.html