Can anybody explain why polymarket and predictit sustain such different prices? Finding these differences wildly implausible.

it's almost impossible to arb these across siloed markets across different geographies and also polymarket and others reflect the different geographical "wisdom of crowds" because of geolimiting.

there are even funnier queries here

Design and software at Apple. Also into AI, philosophy of mind, ethics.

it's almost impossible to arb these across siloed markets across different geographies and also polymarket and others reflect the different geographical "wisdom of crowds" because of geolimiting.

there are even funnier queries here https://metaforecast.org/?query=US+President+Election