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Baic🔵

@gbc-jinpin

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345 Followers


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My second swing buy was when NEIRO again dropped from 30m all the way down to 3m. There were many external factors and a lot of internal processes involved, but I don’t feel like going into details. I bought in stages from 7m to 3m, accumulating 250 SOL. I was very, very dissatisfied with this bottom-fishing. I bought too little and sold too early. This also relates to what I mentioned in a previous tweet: if I had gone to bed earlier, I could have made an extra $500,000. I sold those precious bottom tokens between 9m to 12m, which was my most regrettable swing trade. I will definitely reflect and review thoroughly in the future. Even though I’ve written two tweets, there are still many internal processes, judgments, and thoughts that I haven’t expressed. Swing trading is indeed a mentally exhausting endeavor; it’s hard to encapsulate it in just a few words.
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About Evaluating Projects: - Default to skepticism regarding project statements. - Partnerships are often meaningless and indicate no real activity. - Evaluate small projects by their actual contributions and their impact on value chains; consider whether their outcomes positively influence public perception of coin price. - Genuine project costs are minimal compared to funding amounts, mostly relying on deception. - Avoid projects with a history of unethical behavior (e.g., rug pulls) as they present reputational risks. About Marketing: - Most project teams lack marketing knowledge. - Marketing effectiveness is often difficult to quantify. - Claims of quantifiable outcomes usually aren’t genuine; prioritize KOL engagements as a marketing budget. - Other marketing expenditures could be better used for pricing or market influence.
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About VCs (Venture Capitalists): - Beware that VCs' technical research and articles may be misleading. - The thesis portions of VC publications can be useful for learning. - Fundamentally, VCs aim to sell tokens—nothing else matters. - Most VCs do not profit; many Chinese VCs lack trading experience or basic knowledge of blockchain operations. - VCs should actively promote or engage with the projects they invest in; this is expected. - Very few VCs understand the industry comprehensively, though some have advanced insights. About Liquid Funds: - Currently, liquid funds are unprofitable and lag behind Bitcoin's performance. - Historically, liquid funds were profitable and benefitted ordinary investors. - Investors in liquid funds already hold Bitcoin exposure, so liquid funds can only invest in non-Bitcoin assets, often resulting in poor performance. - In summary, liquid funds struggle to outperform Bitcoin.
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4. **Taylor Rule:** Proposed by economist John B. Taylor, the Taylor Rule is a formula that helps guide central banks in setting interest rates based on economic targets. 5. **Effects of Changes in Inflation, Neutral Rate, and Output Gap on Rate Cut Pace:** The current neutral interest rate suggests that two cuts of 25 basis points (bps) could suffice if inflation remains around 3%, nearing a monetary easing environment. However, if inflation decreases further or unemployment surges significantly, larger cuts may be necessary. The rising neutral interest rate will create higher nominal rate requirements, complicating the expectation for a symmetric rate cut approach like prior tightening strategies. After the current tightening cycle, rate cuts may not be as frequent and could depend heavily on market reactions.
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