Baic🔵

@gbc-jinpin

684 Following

720 Followers

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Hi guys I have back !!

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You may not believe it, but although Ethereum has fallen so hard, the bull market pattern of Ethereum has not been destroyed yet: First, Ethereum has not fallen below the rising trend line; secondly, the fourth wave of Ethereum does not overlap with the first wave (according to the wave theory, in the five-wave structure of the bull market, the fourth wave cannot overlap with the first wave). Ethereum has fallen to the support level, but Bitcoin's current position lacks effective support and may continue to fall to around 43,000. If Bitcoin continues to fall, will Ethereum be dragged down to break the support level? This is what I am more worried about at the moment.

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In fact, I don't count the profits from my initial 5 SOL stake; I’m only considering the profits from the swings of these two currencies. My swing trading profits have also reached $300,000, but sometimes I tend to focus too much on the perfection of each swing point, which leads to missing out on the larger subsequent upward waves. One could say that life is never without regrets. Join me in saying: I am the greatest blockchain genius in the universe, and I will succeed!

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My second swing buy was when NEIRO again dropped from 30m all the way down to 3m. There were many external factors and a lot of internal processes involved, but I don’t feel like going into details. I bought in stages from 7m to 3m, accumulating 250 SOL. I was very, very dissatisfied with this bottom-fishing. I bought too little and sold too early. This also relates to what I mentioned in a previous tweet: if I had gone to bed earlier, I could have made an extra $500,000. I sold those precious bottom tokens between 9m to 12m, which was my most regrettable swing trade. I will definitely reflect and review thoroughly in the future. Even though I’ve written two tweets, there are still many internal processes, judgments, and thoughts that I haven’t expressed. Swing trading is indeed a mentally exhausting endeavor; it’s hard to encapsulate it in just a few words.

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Here’s the translation of your text into English: --- Swing trading is truly a challenging operation. I have too many trades, and it's hard to fit everything into one Twitter post, so I have to split it into two. Now, let’s talk about my swing trading with NEIRO: you can reference the charts for all operations. My first swing buy was when NEIRO dropped from 30m to 5m. At that time, due to Ansem’s repeated fluctuations, NEIRO fell straight down. I made a direct buy of 200 SOL at 5m, and due to the small liquidity, my average purchase price came to 7m. I sold all my holdings between 14m to 27m, which can be considered my most satisfying swing trade overall.

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2️⃣ Since my follower count has increased, one small benefit is that project teams privately message me to recommend their own projects, but so far, I haven’t come across any major projects. ⓵ I have started receiving invitations to participate in KOL rounds, but I don't reply to those. ⓶ I stick to my original intention and move forward steadily. --- If you need any further assistance, feel free to ask!

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Here’s the translation of your text into English: --- **My little method for finding airdrop projects on Twitter:** 1️⃣ Some influencers share projects without tagging the official project accounts, either because they are sharing out of pure interest or just for fun. Everyone has the desire to share. ⓵ In this case, when I see such posts, I copy the project name and search for the official account to gather information. ⓶ Then, I check Rootdata to look into the financing and project background, and verify it in English-speaking regions and other language areas. ⓷ Because some influential bloggers may actually have few followers and the project team doesn’t pay them, they won’t intentionally promote the project. ⓸ However, such projects might be in the early stages.

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why i not og flog？？

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About Individuals: - If you’re buying VC tokens, don’t promote them (but welcome sincere sharing); with community tokens, engage in community building and promotion. - Trust on-chain data and real buy orders. - Encourage any form of rights protection unless there’s a conflict of interest. - Understand that everyone makes mistakes; no one cares if your predictions are right or wrong; maintain a public record of learning. - Share successful experiences to inspire others. - Value truly insightful accounts and engage with them; fewer than 1% of accounts still focus on genuine value sharing.

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About Evaluating Projects: - Default to skepticism regarding project statements. - Partnerships are often meaningless and indicate no real activity. - Evaluate small projects by their actual contributions and their impact on value chains; consider whether their outcomes positively influence public perception of coin price. - Genuine project costs are minimal compared to funding amounts, mostly relying on deception. - Avoid projects with a history of unethical behavior (e.g., rug pulls) as they present reputational risks. About Marketing: - Most project teams lack marketing knowledge. - Marketing effectiveness is often difficult to quantify. - Claims of quantifiable outcomes usually aren’t genuine; prioritize KOL engagements as a marketing budget. - Other marketing expenditures could be better used for pricing or market influence.

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About VCs (Venture Capitalists): - Beware that VCs' technical research and articles may be misleading. - The thesis portions of VC publications can be useful for learning. - Fundamentally, VCs aim to sell tokens—nothing else matters. - Most VCs do not profit; many Chinese VCs lack trading experience or basic knowledge of blockchain operations. - VCs should actively promote or engage with the projects they invest in; this is expected. - Very few VCs understand the industry comprehensively, though some have advanced insights. About Liquid Funds: - Currently, liquid funds are unprofitable and lag behind Bitcoin's performance. - Historically, liquid funds were profitable and benefitted ordinary investors. - Investors in liquid funds already hold Bitcoin exposure, so liquid funds can only invest in non-Bitcoin assets, often resulting in poor performance. - In summary, liquid funds struggle to outperform Bitcoin.

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About Centralized Exchanges: - Deep down, harbor distrust for centralized exchanges; avoid derivatives trading with them. - Use centralized exchanges as a means for cross-chain transactions or buying fiat currencies. - If there's any FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) regarding the exchange, withdraw all funds immediately—even just one dollar. - Centralized exchanges can serve as a good entry point for careers while providing passive information intake; using them effectively depends on individual skill.

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Essential Qualities for Progress in the Blockchain Industry: About KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders): - Treat everything KOLs say as noise and use their statements solely to gauge project funding strength and the KOL network (e.g., price-tagged investment research posts). - If someone promotes a project, assume they only do so because they have invested in it. - Don't trust any PnL (Profit and Loss) screenshots or retrospective analyses. - Do not believe anyone’s claims about their financial status or wealth level. - People who appear wealthy are often the ones hiding their financial status; those with real wealth tend to keep it discreet.

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6. **Impact of Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Volatility on Markets:** The article discusses rising term premiums, decreased policy sensitivity, valuations of equity assets under pressure, and potential boosts to innovation investments. 7. **Rising Dominance of Fiscal Policy: Could a "Fiscal Big Water Buffalo" Be More Likely?** The article concludes by questioning whether fiscal policy will effectively supplement market liquidity, which will be explored in future discussions. The analysis emphasizes a cautious outlook on impending rate cuts, focusing on the intricate relationship between inflation trends, neutral interest rates, and broader economic conditions that may lead to a more restrained monetary policy approach.

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4. **Taylor Rule:** Proposed by economist John B. Taylor, the Taylor Rule is a formula that helps guide central banks in setting interest rates based on economic targets. 5. **Effects of Changes in Inflation, Neutral Rate, and Output Gap on Rate Cut Pace:** The current neutral interest rate suggests that two cuts of 25 basis points (bps) could suffice if inflation remains around 3%, nearing a monetary easing environment. However, if inflation decreases further or unemployment surges significantly, larger cuts may be necessary. The rising neutral interest rate will create higher nominal rate requirements, complicating the expectation for a symmetric rate cut approach like prior tightening strategies. After the current tightening cycle, rate cuts may not be as frequent and could depend heavily on market reactions.

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2. **What is Neutral Interest Rate? significance of Its Level:** The neutral interest rate is the rate where monetary policy neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity. If the actual rate is below neutral, the policy is considered loose, while if above, it is tight, affecting economic growth accordingly. 3. **How to Calculate Neutral Interest Rate?** Estimating the neutral interest rate is complex and model-dependent, such as the Laubach-Williams model. It utilizes various economic factors and potential output growth rates to determine this dynamic natural rate used for evaluating monetary policy.

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