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Why are % on Polymarket so different from those in traditional polls? 1. Users bet on an outcome if they think it will happen, regardless of their personal preferences. They are driven by profit and strategic calculations, which not necessarily reflect their true preferences. 2. They may use betting as a hedge against their true preference not winning. These two behaviors magnify the polarization and volatility that can be seen on Polymarket (aka the delta between Polymarket prediction and traditional polls when asking about the US presidential election outcome).
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