aviation

United CEO Scott Kirby's talk at JPM had some interesting insights on impact of DOGE directed government shutdowns and US-Canada relationships.

Airline data is considered a 'real-time' indicator of economic conditions. Its the first thing impacted when a business or individual has to tighten spending.

Also gives a good picture of the broader impact of the 'govt economy' i.e. contractors, vendors, consultants etc

Physician always trying to learn, passionate about healthspan and precision medicine.

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For govt:
Kirby said government travel (≈2% of United revenue, +2–3% from contractors) is down ~50% thanks to Trump‑admin DOGE cuts — a “pretty material” short‑term hit to demand

Kirby “If I was running it, I’d go about it a lot more with a scalpel,” 🔪

Tarrifs: 
Canada data is crazy. He said big drop in Canadian traffic to US. Overall, flight data shows new bookings from Canada to the U.S. down ~20% since Feb
Mexico is also seeing a drop though not as big as Canada

Big economic impact always takes few quarters too reflect properly. 6 quarters is good number to wait and see specially this summer time will give us realistic numb