Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
What’s the value of owning the timeline topic for 24 hours in both crypto and tech?
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timdaub (🥝,🎩) pfp
timdaub (🥝,🎩)
@timdaub.eth
yeah but then you need to factor in that going forward people will take him less seriously which can be more than a million
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Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
all of this is just https://i.imgur.com/VraOvck.jpg
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timdaub (🥝,🎩) pfp
timdaub (🥝,🎩)
@timdaub.eth
i don‘t get it
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Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rorschach_test In this situation, people are going to reinforce their belief based on priors. :)
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timdaub (🥝,🎩) pfp
timdaub (🥝,🎩)
@timdaub.eth
yeah ok but his betting math is still silly and it seems he slipped. That’s independent of the bet. The more unlikely outcome has the better odds and he overpaid. The bet is interesting but the set up is wrong or not?
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Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
You can make money permissionlessly betting against this https://polymarket.com/event/balaji-bet-btc-1m-usd-on-june-17
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timdaub (🥝,🎩) pfp
timdaub (🥝,🎩)
@timdaub.eth
Na I don‘t care about betting. I’m happy if BtC goes to 1M USD. I‘m just saying his math is weird and he hasn‘t clarified and there‘s a bunch of his fans coming to the rescue now. But I still don‘t get it
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Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
To be clear: I disagree and don’t think it will happen.
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timdaub (🥝,🎩) pfp
timdaub (🥝,🎩)
@timdaub.eth
IMO the spectacle is not: Balaji is forecasting BTC to rally. The spectacle is: Balaji is an important person to our space and he acts not like usual (people are worried for him).
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Henry 🎩 pfp
Henry 🎩
@hlau
@balajis.eth should make the second million dollar bet against 1,000 vaults of $100. That’s 998 more people who can play along. I’m happy to act as the counterparty to draw up the smart contract to facilitate this.
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