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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
I don't know Harry, but skeptical that jumping from $8M fund in 2020 to $400M is going to work, especially if he's based in London. Hard enough not being in SV trying to compete with Bay Area based investors. Venture firms like Founder's Fund and CRV are giving LPs back money because of a lack of well-priced opportunities. Hard to believe he's going to be able to deploy the requisite sized checks ($10M+) into outlier companies to return the fund 2-3x. The steelman is his media channels gets 50 million views a month and he can sneak in as a co-lead for a great company that wants distribution? All that said, he's sort of willed himself into existence through sheer force of personality and a podcast, so maybe that translates to investing. https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/15/20vc-closes-new-400m-fund-to-make-europe-great-again-says-harry-stebbings/
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androidsixteen
@androidsixteen.eth
Worst case scenario, $8M in fees every year (assuming it's straightforward, and not based on rate of deployment) Feels like there's only room to fail up
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
Sure, but good luck raising another fund. Fees also have to support the fund, etc. Still can make life-changing money, but $20-40M post tax in SV is just an early employee at a successful startup. So your "SV career" is kind of over. Many people will say who cares / I would take that deal, but the reality is most people in "SV" (even not living there) are status driven. Again, not saying he's doing this / won't be able to return and raise another fund. Just going to be super hard. No risk, no reward.
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vrypan |--o--|
@vrypan.eth
> Again, not saying he's doing this / won't be able to return and raise another fund. Just going to be super hard. No risk, no reward. In other words, VC in US is an industry, VC in Europe is a startup.
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androidsixteen
@androidsixteen.eth
I think he has some tailwinds: - if cost of capital goes back down, round sizes will continue to be inflated - he can also overpay to lead and get a winner or two that way - AI / sustaining tech tends to cost more (driven by FAANG balance sheets) That said, sizing around $100-150M for fund 2 would have been more prudent Gotta like players that swing for the fences though!
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Jason
@jachian
In another life I wouldn’t have believed the $20-40M figure
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