aviation

United CEO Scott Kirby's talk at JPM had some interesting insights on impact of DOGE directed government shutdowns and US-Canada relationships.

Airline data is considered a 'real-time' indicator of economic conditions. Its the first thing impacted when a business or individual has to tighten spending.

Also gives a good picture of the broader impact of the 'govt economy' i.e. contractors, vendors, consultants etc

Physician always trying to learn, passionate about healthspan and precision medicine.

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For govt:
Kirby said government travel (≈2% of United revenue, +2–3% from contractors) is down ~50% thanks to Trump‑admin DOGE cuts — a “pretty material” short‑term hit to demand

Kirby “If I was running it, I’d go about it a lot more with a scalpel,” 🔪

Tarrifs: 
Canada data is crazy. He said big drop in Canadian traffic to US. Overall, flight data shows new bookings from Canada to the U.S. down ~20% since Feb
Mexico is also seeing a drop though not as big as Canada

Percentage of borrowers at least 60 days late on their car payments is at the highest on record:

Consumers: 
Low‑end leisure bookings have also been down echoing the sentiment shared on car payments during the week

Consumers: 
Low‑end leisure bookings have also been down echoing the sentiment shared on car payments during the week https://warpcast.com/unusualwhales/0xf828297f

Economics

what are some (non-academic!!) recession indicators?

examples:
- doordash x klarna for interest-free installments for food delivery
- hallie batchelder's CHD episode circa a few months ago
- "recession blonde" aka women opting out of hair touchup appts
- thrifting (and maxi skirts) making a major content comeback

Also interesting timing for these as well.

United is responding to this by retiring 21 old aircraft which may seem small, but is significant considering the shortage and long delays in new aircraft delivery globally. 

Something to keep an eye on for sure

Also interesting timing for these as well. https://warpcast.com/ted/0x69f16f8b