AMA about @ponder!

We’ve been shipping a lot of new stuff (more coming today) and figured there may be some questions on things like:

- How do we stop collusion?
- Is there a Dune dashboard?
- Should clouds have monocles?

Drop yours below 👇

Friendly daily predictions | By @ba and @cojo.eth

Co-founder @ponder | @survey | Ex   | colinjohnson.io

Working on Farcaster and Warpcast. Longer thoughts at https://dwr.email

We’re currently 98% predictions 2% polls.

Polls have 2 issues:
- Not enough users to generate a business case
- Cap on quality of experience in V1 frames. Slow, jenky, etc. 

Open protocol data offers a ton of potential improvements over legacy polling (geotags, reward delivery, filtering responses by on chain characteristics, by cast ckntent, etc) that will be very interesting when FC has 10x’d DAU. Polling remains long term interesting for that reason, but not justifiable as the sole product today.

How are you thinking about polls vs. prediction markets in terms of time investment?

The most important element is our CollusionGuard ML algo.

It gives everyone a score based upon their voting history. If they have no history, their vote weight is very low. If they have a history of colluding (consistent votes with the same group of people), their vote weight stays very low. If they have a normal distribution of votes, their weight is very high.

Weve seen collusion groups join the app, attempt to collude, fail, and then leave. It’s been super effective.

The trade off is you have to trust Ponder’s algo. I think long term we can make this all happen with zk proofs on chain, but not today while we find PMF.

How can someone be confident that predictions and polls aren't beeing manipulated? Is there a way to see a list of all participants? Curious to hear how you typically respond to this question.

I love Ponder btw, have been having fun with it from day 1!

Building /fc-africa || Project Manager || Biotechnologist || GYM BRO. Culture eats Strategy for Breakfast. Founder /ftc

We’ve discussed this internally! It would be relatively easy to implement, the question is just how many options you want to give users. 

Sticking to USDC in makes it easy to understand and requires fewer steps during voting, which already arguably has too many steps (deciding how much to bid)

But we may implement it if demand is strong.

Would it be possible to vote using degen or any other additional token that might come?

I believe it would make voting interesting too and higher prize pools because we’re degens after all

Swap is shipping any moment now! Very soon.

And 100%, we’re going to get our web app to parity with our mini app soon - which will let us drop links to predictions on e.g. Twitter. 

An AI agent will also be helpful at giving people access to the product without even needing to see the interface.

When would the swap feature be included? 
Is there any thought concerning the ability to share polls to other social app like x

Take over the world 🐭

We want to become a global platform for gathering human sentiment (in a way that’s actually fun). 

No open roles at the moment.

What’s long term plan for ponder?

Is there a vacant job position at ponder?

Building Higher apparel at High Line 🧢 
Host at /clickcast /cpg || Husband to @shiwen

Eventually we want to have a full ecosystem for revealing novel human sentiment, with polls and predictions as two of the pillars. Polls are kind of hamstrung by V1 frames right now (and lack of users), so we're not spending much time exploring that space.

Where does polls fit into the long term vision for ponder?

Software Engineer ReactJS
Official promoter and PA of @dominosmusic 
And number 1 supporter of /doms

We need to make the content better and results more social.

That means:
- Better questions 
- Better sharing (working on this)

Then, more distribution channels. World App is one, Twitter marketing is another.

How you can help is by voting as much as possible! Every vote makes the game feel more alive.

Cat Town

is it possible to get a PNL on each prediction? the total amount of winnings doesnt add up for me

also I ran a prediction for /cattown @cattown using $KIBBLE and i got some feedback from a few winners that they received 0

also (sorry for the text dump) I got 54 notifications when my prediction ended 😅

Welcome to Cat Town; a cosy gamified onchain economy developed by cats for cats

Join us in /cattown and in-game at cat.town

Built with 💙 on @base

Head of Partnerships & Community Outreach @ /cattown

https://youtube.com/@kevilini

Yeah, we’ve got more details coming to profile pages soon! Just have limited dev hours so we have to prioritize.

Smaller market cap tokens have been causing issues with our Relay swapper, so we recommend only using larger mcap tokens for now. We’ll take a look at that prediction though and see what happened, weird to have gotten all those notifications!

Straw hats | Pirate Hunter | 1.111 billion bounty

- New user votes are weighted lower (they still get paid out equally if they guess correctly

- After a certain number of votes, we check if they’ve been voting the same way as any other segments of people too consistently

- If they’ve been voting normally, their vote starts to carry more weight. 

- If they’ve start voting exactly like other people in many questions again, they lose their vote weight

musican. ai artiste. 

designed the channel icon for /relationships

i /yoink & build in the /arweave ecosystem with PDS.inc

you do! that's part of the number you see in notifs

when I win a prediction, do i also get the original wager back? - might be neat to include that in the notifs bc bigger number = more dopamine

artizen

FC-native Audio Rooms powered by 
@huddle01

Checkout at farhouse.club

NFToholic, Web3 native, Metaverse MC, hosting EZ’s Corner for 5+ years Monday at Tokensmart, hosting Farhouse Fridays, & Impact Concerts, through bear & bulls🤠

Awesome!!!😎🙌
A- yes cloud monocle makes 💯 sense!!
B- wasn’t aware of the collusion yet, but of course it’s everywhere monetary gains are possible…😤
C- when is it, I hope I can make it, as I have a spot at the /artizen showcase at 1pst & host the @farhouse Friday show at 4pst…🧐

The creator who makes a question will always earn rewards, which are based upon the number of votes you get.

The better/more viral the question, the greater rewards. Also, the more difficult questions without clear answers will reward the creator even more.

How do you select creators that earn from creating ponder questions or is it just a random process ?

Normie truned into degen in FC | I'm mostly JK | Host /venting /burrfrens | mod /impact /byegary

Once we feel like the product is ready for show time, absolutely - likely to World App first.

We’re also going to get our own web app to feature parity with the mini-app, which will open up a lot of the Twitter world.

So you have plans to expand beyond Warpcast?

I like building crypto apps and learning new things. 

vmathur.com

They are not, but we’re fans of progressive decentralization. All of the rewards and actual votes are on chain (the act of voting, not the vote selection).

Eventually, we see a fully decentralized zk version of this appearing. But need to prove people even want to do the thing first!

Are the predictions themselves on chain? If not have you considered it and what went into that decision

Thank you for all these updates

10 $hunt

I think you better not have a mono lens to be more creative, will ponder share airdrops to farcasters?

i’m yet to try ponder, but can i fund directly from my warplet?

Shouldn't there be perks or exclusive benefits for early subscribers ?