Economics

Prediction: the fall on fertility rates on developed economies does not actually indicate prosperity, just the fact that a large % of both male/female population works 40+ hours a week.

Hence the fertility rate will go back up as soon as the workweek is shortened to 4 days.

writing stuff about tech + decentralization

Yes! I was actually reacting to these news. 

It suddenly clicked how what I'd been taught regarding demographic transitions might actually have been a colonialist bias, and that perhaps increasing gdp per capita is just not worth it.

I believe Japan has been testing this exact hypothesis

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You'd need some real world long term experiment on a shorter workweek for measuring the fertility rate, then the oracle could track it for that specific population.

What would a prediction market on this topic look like?