Venkatesh Rao ☀️
@vgr
I'm trying to think of examples of technologies that were innovative and basically worked, but weren't potent enough to overcome the skepticism eventually, and/or couldn't overcome the deadweight of externalities. Not potent enough: flying cars Couldn't overcome externalities: nuclear rockets Any others?
17 replies
12 recasts
44 reactions
Venkatesh Rao ☀️
@vgr
Flying cars are fascinating, because they've been kinda possible for decades, and they get somewhat lighter and more capable every cycle, but there's fundamental limits to how convenient they can get due to power/weight ratio and power-supply physics. But the bigger problem is that they're simply not that useful.
1 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
Venkatesh Rao ☀️
@vgr
Segways used to be an example, but then they turned it around. The battery/motor tech got capable enough that the sidewalk vehicle category explored into a much larger variety and smaller form factor, even though the original Segway was too big and too early and too useless.
3 replies
0 recast
1 reaction
Venkatesh Rao ☀️
@vgr
Reason I'm thinking about this is that the serious bear case for crypto is that it is one of these two things. The fear that the negative externalities are too much of a deadweight I think is largely gone at least from Ethereum (PoW --> PoS) and bitcoin may or may not overcome it. But the "not potent enough" worries me
2 replies
1 recast
6 reactions
Venkatesh Rao ☀️
@vgr
While there are many clever use cases, even weirdly unprecedented and magical seeming ones, so far, nobody has found a true killer app. A potent use case that overwhelms skeptical derision. In a way it's a good thing crypto is practically a "taboo space" as one e-girl who left friend tech said. Good challenge.
2 replies
0 recast
2 reactions
Venkatesh Rao ☀️
@vgr
I think people in crypto who think the thing to do is to woo the hostile influencers who have made it a taboo space are barking up the wrong tree. Not only is that not going to happen, it's the wrong goal. The trick would be to find an application so impossible to not adopt, people are willing to break the taboo
4 replies
2 recasts
13 reactions
Cassie Heart
@cassie
The video game crash of 1983 is a good parallel – the space was filled with garbage and shitty cash grabs. What turned things around was a plucky trading card and arcade game company realizing quality and experiences were the issue, and so they released the Nintendo Entertainment System, with strict quality controls.
1 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
Cassie Heart
@cassie
What crypto needs is someone who refuses to bend to its cash grab behaviors (make MEV impossible, find a better economic model than something that just makes rich people richer) and actually deliver a meaningful platform that enables truly new verticals to form, but makes existing ones _better_.
1 reply
1 recast
2 reactions