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Reports from Devcon are coming in are really clear: Leading indicators of focus (i.e. what the smartest, most influential people care about) have migrated away from blockchain + towards "Programmable Cryptography" What does this mean for Ethereum over the next 5 years? ⬇️
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People in Ethereum world really care about two things: [1] the PRICE of the token, which long-term is driven by demand for blockspace, which long-term is driven by the demand for applications that run on Ethereum [2] the radical INNOVATION of a world computer running civisational-level infra, solving coordination problems with cheap and programmable "organisation tech", disintermediating the web of platforms at large - the MISSION (spoiler - in the long run, [1] and [2] are the same thing) What does this have to do with Prog Crypto? "Programmable Cryptography" is a catch-all for a wave of innovations including ZK, MPC, FHE, ORAM... They are distinctive because they promise to disintermediate ALL KINDS of communication, not just strangers reaching consensus over global state which, lest we forget, and as @polynya reminds us, is the (only) reason to use a blockchain ⬇️
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(also, worth noting that most of the progress in prog crypto has been sponsored in some way or another by traditional crypto) Anyway, you add @cdixon.eth's very sensible "web3" thesis that the whole problem with the internet is our overreliance on platforms & the platform overhead / fatigue that results Epic v Apple, creator take rates, you don't "own" your data, technofeudalism lalala Sprinkle in the recent and future technical progress we call "Prog Crypto", & we can start to replicate platform-like affordances WITHOUT the platforms, and directly p2p Of course it won't look like decentralised Twitter, this is too skeuomorphic - radical innovation never cannibalises old applications until the later stages of the innovation wave Prog crypto will help unblock post-platform experiences at large, across what we today call "social" + "enterprise software" + "media" + "marketplaces" + "finance/law" But we'll have new words for it because we'll be making new things. like "narrowcasting" from @cursive ⬇️
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This means that all those smart people leading the frontier of Ethereum are not that focussed just on Defi as the driver for the next wave of innovations. They're focussed on a much bigger, bolder, riskier dream, and one we share at Tonk To tear down the internet and rebuild it anew, but this time without the platform overhead So that we can finally have nice post-platform services beyond just the DNS and TIDAL and Substack and Wikipedia This is the innovation wave that the leading lights within the Ethereum ecosystem are betting on. How will this affect the price of ETH? I think two things: Short-term, the energy this cycle is around memecoins. Memecoins and prog crypto do not play nice together at the VIBE level. I am very open to having my mind changed on this if you can see a way they mesh nice together. But remember this from Vitalik?
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Ethereum has not, will not lean into this. The ethereum vibe is very much to "go have your fun" on @solana But long-term a disintermediated web of post-platform services WILL drive demand for eth blockspace, as: 1. a malleable identity registry 2. an objective reference for historical events + causal relationships 3. occasional canonical state updates for services/worlds + more? What does this mean for you, anon? In terms of your bags, I'm not super optimistic about Eth this cycle. But longterm I am optimistic. What do you think will service more human desire - memecoins, or a new internet? in terms of mission and a chance to build the future, I think this is a MASSIVE opportunity. If you're reading this post you're essentially in the same situation as someone reading the Bitcoin whitepaper in 2010. You now have the chance to build a be a part of that future. ⬇️
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