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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
My own PhD took me almost seven years and made me extremely anxious, I ended up not really answering the original question, and the simulation model that I built is a suspicious mess of spaghetti R code. I’ve never felt so attacked by a meme https://x.com/jessesingal/status/1804605617593827539
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accountless
@accountless.eth
what was it on and how cool are your shiny dashboards w r
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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
A simulation of the impacts of climate change on civil aircraft takeoff performance https://commons.erau.edu/edt/720/ https://github.com/TheAviationDoctor/PhD
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accountless
@accountless.eth
literally an aviation doctor what a cool topic “The research questions included how much additional thrust and payload removal will be required to offset the centurial changes in takeoff conditions.” I don't know how to parse the conclusion, tho - not much has changed since the last study?
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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
Yes, essentially the previous studies all took the worst case scenario for the future climate (SSP5) and for just a handful of airports, many “hot and high” to begin with. It led them to publish strong results, which “sell” well, but may also not be representative of the most likely trajectory going forward. I generalized the previous studies by looking at all climate scenarios (SSP1 through 5) and for all airports (881 above one million passengers) instead of just a handful. I also included more climate variables (incl. air density and winds). And, I used the latest climate models (CMIP6 instead of CMIP5). The conclusion is that takeoff performance will depend greatly on 1/ the future climate scenario (duh) and 2/ the location of the airport. Airports in and around the Siberian plateau will be the most affected. But on average, it’s not as big of an effect as I thought it would be when I embarked in the research (and as the literature review had led me to believe)
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accountless
@accountless.eth
yesterday, I saw something about climate change and permafrost that was talking about a hot, hot, positive cycle. frost melts and releases methane sinkhole and ejects more methane into air ... for the takeoff, do harder conditions to take off require more fuel, etc? and can that be calculated for something meaningful?
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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
And to your question (I’m decidedly bad at answering them): yes, warmer air decreases air density, and thus lift for a given ground speed. So we must run engines harder and warmer to achieve the same takeoff performance (distance and payload). It’s not so much the extra fuel burn, it’s more that running the engines harder increases the severity (wear and tear from internal temperature) on their components and thus reduces the economic life of the engines and the maintenance intervals. That’s an extra cost for the airline. Also, you can’t just accelerate arbitrarily faster at takeoff — eventually, you run into runway length or tire speed limitations. If that happens, you must remove passengers or cargo from the aircraft, which costs the airline some revenue
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accountless
@accountless.eth
Second and third and fourth and fifth order consequences are always fascinating
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