Content
@
https://warpcast.com/~/channel/dropglobalnews
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
Murtaza Hussain
@mazmhussain
“Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has continued into a second day, prompting Vladimir Putin to convene a meeting with his top defence and law enforcement officials. A report from one Russia military blogger suggested Ukrainian forces had advanced northwards, possibly as far as nine miles (15km) from the border, along a highway north of the border village of Sverdlikovo and near a major natural gas transmission hub, but this could not be verified. Official and unofficial Russian sources reported that a force of several hundred soldiers had crossed a lightly defended part of the border on Tuesday morning, in what appears to be one of the largest incursions into Russia since the war began in February 2022.” Wild twist that Ukraine has turned the tables on the Russian invasion by invading Russian territory and apparently holding it effectively. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/07/ukraine-incursion-into-russia-kursk-region-continues-into-second-day
8 replies
0 recast
19 reactions
Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
Very perplexed by this apparent attempt at a tie breaker. Perhaps the most obvious angle is that it solidifies Ukraine’s position in upcoming negotiations, i.e., Ukraine retreats in return for an equivalent Russian retreat. But that assumes that Ukraine can hold onto this salient until negotiations happen, which is far from obvious. The second order effect is to weaken Putin by showing to Russians that he’s incapable of defending the Motherland’s own borders, and not the strongman he portrays himself to be. Every humiliation presumably brings him closer to being ousted. But it’s also an unprecedented escalation in this conflict and may force Putin’s hand into escalating further (e.g., using a tactical nuke?). In which case a third-order consequence might be to force a Western response, which in turn would benefit Ukraine.
3 replies
0 recast
4 reactions
Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
The next few days are certainly going to be interesting. For all the talk of a weakening West (indecisive in Ukraine, retreating in Africa, impotent against Iranian proxies, etc), I can’t shake the feeling that Russia and Iran, at least, are paper tigers that might fall quicker and sooner than is commonly accepted.
1 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
Murtaza Hussain
@mazmhussain
Agree with that too the U.S. constantly overestimates adversaries. That said Russia has been improving and holding out longer than it seemed they would after parlous start to the war.
2 replies
0 recast
1 reaction
Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
What I’m thinking is that Russia is really just one guy, though, and Iran is just a small cadre of aging revolutionaries nearing their expiry date. In either case, the might of their military might not matter if the leaders are no longer there to give orders. Both sets of leaders hold strong because they disallow dissent, but they’re also incredibly brittle because they have no succession plans, no redundant governance, no perennial institutions. They can both be toppled overnight (just like their predecessors have been in the 20th century!). In the case of Russia, Prigozhin came very close to achieving that a year ago. I’m perhaps guilty of wishful thinking here, but I can picture a rapid and brutal unraveling of political order in both those Goliaths if their respective Davids (Ukraine and Israel) manage to push them just past some unknowable threshold. This would be a massive opportunity to redirect the trajectory of the whole 21st century
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
