Geopolitics

There is a very narrow path in which the Iranian regime does not survive a direct confrontation with Israel, leading to the collapse of regional proxies (incl. Shia militias in Iraq and Syria, Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, perhaps even the Syrian regime itself), but also to depriving China and Russia from influence in the Middle East.

If this could be combined with an even narrower path where Putin’s regime does not survive its lack of success over Ukraine, we could be looking at a very, very different geopolitical landscape within 2–3 years from what the doomsayers have been predicting regarding the erosion of Western influence

PhD in aviation ∩ climate science | Aviator, diver, ETH maxi, nexialist | Host of /diving /ethfinance /eth-staker /geopolitics /science /singapore /thomas

Curious, how would Iranian regime not survive this? What would be the scenario? 🤔

Usually, having an outside enemy strengthens a regime (and support for it in its country).

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My best guess is: the regime is revealed to be a paper tiger, the population realizes that, and a coup ensues. Or, part of the leadership is taken out through military action, and reformists take advantage of the power vacuum.