It's coming down to North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Slight edge for Kamala right now.

Political activist. Founder of mydemocracy.app and /advocacy. Host of the /politics channel. RCs may or may not = endorsements.

PA is the tipping point. Doesn’t need the others to win. Way more paths to victory than Trump. Prediction markets are wildly off on this one, maybe still baked in Biden’s inevitable loss or something. But it’s PA, WI, and MI for the ballgame, and I think she’ll lock those up with more certainty after the debate. We’re in a reverse 2016: too much confidence that Trump is going to prevail.

I reckon another lesson from 2016 is that it's not weird to have a regional polling miss of a few points. So you can't be so sure PA will be the tipping point although that's what current polling says. Also some weird wildcards like it looks like RFK Jr will be on the ballot in NC but not PA